Greetings, The United States: Starting off, the consensus estimate for the core CPI in May is an increase of 0.5%. The markets could react violently if we get an upward surprise, especially if calls for more aggressive Fed rate hikes get louder. China: Hong Kong-based and foreign investors are returning to mainland equity …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 7th, 2022
Greetings, Asia – Pacific: To begin, the RBA delivered a 50 bps rate hike, spooking the markets Equities: In equity markets, sentiment has shifted to “risk-off” this morning after global bond yields jumped. The RBA’s outsize hike added to concerns about rising rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 3%. Are …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 6th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The jobs market held up better than expected in May. Also, prime-age labor force participation continues to rebound, which should ease wage pressures as more Americans return to work. The Eurozone: The gap between consumer and business confidence hit a record high this year. China: The stock market …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 3rd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The recent decline in CEO confidence does not bode well for capital spending. The Eurozone: Germany’s economy is expected to underperform this year. Emerging Markets: Ukraine’s central bank has returned to the business of monetary policy, hiking rates to 25%. Energy: Next, US oil inventories surprised to …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 2nd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, US job openings remained remarkably strong in April, indicating persistent tightness in the labor market. Economists are skeptical about manufacturing strength persisting in the months ahead despite improvement in May. The spread between new orders and inventories points to weakness in the ISM PMI later this year. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The gap between home prices and wages continues to widen. This was sustainable when mortgage rates dipped below 3%, but not now. In addition, the University of Michigan’s index of buying conditions for houses, which is based on consumer sentiment, has collapsed. Emerging Markets: South Africa’s unemployment appears to …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 31st, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, consumers dipped into their savings, which dropped to the lowest level since 2008 as a percentage of disposable income. The Eurozone: Germany’s May CPI report surprised to the upside, giving the ECB hawks more ammunition to push for a 50bps hike in July. Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies have been rebounding. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 27th, 2022
Greetings, United States: To start, the pace of moderation in core inflation will depend on corporate margins. China: China announced an easing of lending requirements for homebuyers. Due to a sharp rise in the banks’ NPL ratios with developer loans, however, this may not translate into an effective stimulus for the Chinese economy. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 26th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the FOMC minutes did not suggest a 75 bps hike in the months ahead. The market has even started pricing in a very small probability that we may not even get the full 50 bps hikes over the next two months if economic growth hits a wall. Durable goods …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 25th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Supply bottlenecks are disappearing, which means suppliers will have a tough time raising or even maintaining prices. Europe: The divergence between business and consumer confidence in the Czech Republic has reached extreme levels. Japan: Japan’s service firms face severe cost pressures and are starting to pass those on to …
