Greetings, United States: Manufacturers reported substantial gains in input costs last month. The PPI report confirmed that trend, with processed intermediate goods prices rising sharply (2 charts). James Bullard suggested that the Fed will review its QE policy when the US hits a 75% vaccination rate. United Kingdom: Retail sales strengthened last …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Business-to-business sales point to a rebound in brick & mortar retailers’ activity. Here is the Evercore ISI survey of retailers. China: Alibaba shares jumped after Bejing announced a fine against the firm. The regulatory “overhang” is over for now. Cryptocurrency: Here are some estimates for Coinbase’s total market value based on …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 9th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Americans are saving/investing more of their stimulus cash. Nonetheless, Bank of America is predicting an 11% jump in retail sales for March. And here is a forecast for personal incomes from Morgan Stanley. Eurozone: Euro-area financial conditions are the most accommodative in years. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s COVID-related deaths hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 8th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Vaccine supply constraints are easing. Asia-Pacific: Tokyo COVID cases are on the rise. Office vacancies continue to climb. China: Services inflation is expected to rebound. Equities: Share buybacks have accelerated again. Here is a look at the 5-year rolling correlation of S&P 500 sectors to the 10-year Treasury …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 7th, 2021
Greetings, United States: As the pandemic eases, businesses will need to boost wages to attract and retain staff. Tight labor markets may drive wage inflation. Higher commodity prices are unlikely to create a sustained increase in inflation. But persistent wage gains could. Emerging Markets: India’s central bank left rates unchanged as …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 6th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The ISM Services PMI surged in March, hitting a record high. Here is the attribution. Canada: The BOC’s ownership of shorter-maturity bonds is approaching 50% of outstanding. Emerging Markets: New COVID cases in India hit a record high. Nonetheless, factory growth held up well last month. …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 5th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The US economy is heating up as the job market strengthens. The March headline payrolls report topped economists’ forecast. While hiring was robust last month, it should be noted that the upside surprise was mostly due to seasonal adjustments – see the comment from Mizuho Securities below. United Kingdom: Long-term …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 1st, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. The next Daily Shot will be out on Monday, April 5th. If you are unsure whether The Daily Shot was published on a particular date, you can check online at TheDailyShot.com or on the administrative updates page. United States: …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 31st, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Only four FOMC members expect a rate hike (liftoff) next year. However, the market continues to assign close to an 80% probability of liftoff in 2022. It’s important to note that the Fed …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 30th, 2021
Greetings, Administrative Update: Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published this Friday, April 2nd. United States: Here is a summary of price indices for all the regional manufacturing reports. The spread between indices of prices paid and prices charged keeps widening. Without further boosting output prices, some manufacturers could …