The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Negative economic surprises signal lower Treasury yields ahead.

Commodities: Cocoa futures took a massive hit on Monday.

It’s been a good month for milk futures.

Japan: JGB yields are surging, with the 30-year rate climbing above 2%.

Equities: The Reddit crowd’s “pump ‘n dump” activity is back.

The Eurozone: After months of persistent downgrades, economists have upgraded Germany’s GDP growth forecasts for this year (slightly).

Energy: Capital Economics expects OPEC+ production cuts will start to be unwound from July.

Food for Thought: A warm April:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Households are increasingly concerned about higher unemployment ahead, which often serves as a leading indicator for the unemployment rate.

Canada: Canada’s April employment gains were well above forecasts.

The probability of a BoC June rate cut dipped below 50% following the strong employment report.

China: Net aggregate financing was negative as net government debt issuance declined.

Commodities: Iron ore prices have sharply diverged from the rise in stocks at Chinese ports.

Credit: Is rising unemployment signaling wider high-yield spreads?

Food for Thought: Record earnings in the live-music industry:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Initial jobless claims jumped last week, sparking concerns over potential weaknesses in the labor market.

The United Kingdom: Speculative accounts are betting on a weaker pound in anticipation of the Bank of England’s impending rate cuts.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s headline inflation increased last month, but the core CPI continues to ease.

Commodities: Gold is surging again.

Energy: This chart shows how conflicts impacting the Persian Gulf have impacted the oil price.

Equities: The Dow has been up for seven consecutive trading sessions.

Food for Thought: Robots in manufacturing:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Europe: Riksbank cut rates for the first time since 2016, sending the krona lower.

Equities: VIX typically rises leading up to US elections and then declines

Credit: High-yield spreads appear too tight relative to Treasury market implied volatility.

Commodities: Funds have been rotating between softs and grains, pushing the correlation deeper into negative territory.

China: China’s real estate slump mirrors the US GFC experience.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s recession deepens, with industrial production and construction activity down year-over-year.

Food for Thought: Comparison of wage growth for union and non-union workers in the private sector:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Student debt balances rebounded in the first quarter.

The United Kingdom: Construction activity is rebounding.

China: Hong Kong stocks have outperformed mainland shares year-to-date.

Commodities: China’s currency depreciation typically occurs alongside a rise in gold prices.

Energy: US prices at the pump are heading lower.

Equities: The ability of US firms to maintain strong margins continues to exceed expectations.

Food for Thought: Gender disparity in workplace culture perception based on Glassdoor reviews:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The sharp decline in the Citi Economic Surprise Index points to downside risks in Treasury yields.

The Eurozone: The ECB is on track to cut rates next month.

The composite April PMI index has confirmed the Eurozone’s return to growth.

Commodities: Weather derivatives have become very popular.

Equities: The S&P 500 equal-weight index has been underperforming the capitalization-weighted index, while small caps have been outperforming, marking an unusual trend.

Rates: How much would yields need to rise to wipe out a year’s worth of interest income?

Global Developments: The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.

Food for Thought: Battery manufacturing overcapacity:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Labor force participation held steady, with prime-age participation increasing slightly.

The Eurozone: French factory output declined in March.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance data.

Energy: The US oil rig count dipped below 500 again.

Equities: This chart shows the S&P 500 performance around the Fed’s last rate hike.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury note has been underperforming relative to previous trends around the Fed’s last rate hike.

Food for Thought: Global nuclear energy output:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing Index dipped back into contraction territory in April.

The United Kingdom: Home prices declined again last month.

Japan: The yen is rebounding following what appears to be the Bank of Japan’s second intervention in a week.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s economic activity eased in March from all-time highs.

Equities: The market liked what it heard from Apple, sending share prices higher after the close.

Rates: Historically, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined around FOMC days but has collectively risen outside of FOMC days.

Food for Thought: US births hit a multi-decade low.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Job openings declined sharply in March, indicating that labor market imbalances are continuing to ease. Per Powell’s comments, this suggests that the Fed’s tight monetary policy is reducing demand

Canada: The TSX materials sector has significantly outperformed its US peers over the past two months driven by the rally in gold and silver prices.

Cryptocurrency: Was the SEC right about potential liquidity issues with crypto ETFs? IBIT has been trading at a substantial discount to NAV.

Equities: Treasury yields matter again for the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Commodities: Cocoa futures tumbled another 11% on Wednesday.

Rates: Much of the pressure on Treasuries has occurred during overnight trading sessions.

Food for Thought: Financial sector cyberattacks:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The spread between consumer expectations and current conditions remains in recession territory.

The United Kingdom: Consumer credit experienced solid growth in March.

Japan: Japan’s housing starts have deteriorated.

Commodities: April was a good month for copper.

Equities: Major US indices held resistance at the 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: UFO sightings:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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