The Daily Shot® Brief

CreditGreetings,

The United States: The NFIB small business hiring plans index declined sharply in March.

Equities: The market has not fully priced in recession risks.

Credit: The Fed’s emergency facility balances continue to rise.

Europe: Last month, Germany’s construction PMI fell further into contraction territory.

Canada: Economists have been persistently underestimating Canada’s job growth.

Energy: Oil market implied volatility continues to ease.

Food for Thought: How much prime residential property can $1 million buy?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields declined on the lower-than-expected March ADP private payrolls index and ISM services PMI.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate was adjusted downward again.

Equities: The disconnect between earnings and GDP projections remains a concern.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is now well below the 200-day moving average.

The United Kingdom: GBP/USD has underperformed real rate differentials.

China: China’s services PMI (from S&P Global) was remarkably strong last month.

Commodities: Sugar futures have been surging, driven by supply jitters from the lower-than-expected output in some countries.

Food for Thought: Here is a look at Walmart’s e-commerce business:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Job openings declined more than expected in February.

The Eurozone: Wage growth and CPI are now higher in the Eurozone versus the US.

Equities: Bank shares continue to struggle.

Credit: BofA’s private clients have also been getting out of munis.

Commodities: Palladium’s underperformance widened further as platinum prices jumped.

Emerging Markets: Mexican vehicle sales are rebounding.

Food for Thought: Companies discussing AI:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The ISM PMI report indicated a faster drop in US manufacturing activity in March.

Global central banks’ anticipated policy tightening points to further declines in the ISM PMI.

Equities: How do stocks perform in different ISM Manufacturing PMI regimes?

Credit: Loan balances at US banks declined last week as companies paid down their revolving debt.

The United Kingdom: Among major economies besides Switzerland, UK banks have the highest total asset-to-GDP ratio.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s inflation has peaked.

Cryptocurrency: Dogecoin rallied after its dog logo appeared on Twitter’s main page.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the biggest beneficiaries of NASA’s budget.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Supercore inflation remains elevated on a year-over-year basis (2nd panel).

Equities: Tech shares are trading at a substantial premium to the S&P 500.

The Eurozone: Core inflation continues to surge.

Energy: Weak natural gas prices have been pressuring coal.

Credit: Total US bank deposits continue to fall.

Food for Thought: Global app revenues:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The contribution of consumer spending to GDP growth was the lowest it has been since the onset of the pandemic.

How will the latest banking stress impact GDP growth?

Equities: Stock-bond correlations are firmly in negative territory, with concerns about the banking sector and a potential recession overshadowing the monetary policy uncertainty.

The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, online sales signal weakness ahead for total retail sales.

Canada: The CFIB small/medium-size business index showed an improvement this month.

Asia – Pacific: Australia’s credit growth has been slowing.

Food for Thought: Nearly daily mass shootings in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Soft mortgage applications signal more weakness ahead in pending home sales.

Fewer companies are talking about labor shortages, but more firms are mentioning job cuts.

Equities: Financials’ share prices have massively diverged from bond yields.

The dispersion of performance within sectors and equity factors has been atypical since the beginning of the banking turmoil.

Europe: Sweden hasn’t seen a retail sales shock like this in decades.

China: The PBoC injected liquidity into the market, lowering the front end of the interbank rate curve.

Asia – Pacific: New Zealand’s building permits are down 28% from a year ago.

Food for Thought: Here are US maternal mortality rates by state:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Economists have been upgrading their growth forecasts for this year.

The Eurozone: Selling price expectations point to a rapid decline in Germany’s CPI.

Japan: Japan’s falling birth rate is becoming a pressing problem.

Equities: S&P 500 dividend-paying stocks have outperformed non-dividend payers over the long term with less volatility.

Emerging Markets: Market signals rate hikes in Turkey after the upcoming election.

Credit: Investors remain nervous about European banks.

Global Developments: Risk assets are expensive, according to Oxford Economics.

Food for Thought: Microsoft using its cash to buy Activision Blizzard:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index continues to show slowing factory activity in the region.

The Eurozone: The real M1 money supply is signaling a deep contraction in business activity.

China: Policy easing has taken place within the context of a stronger Chinese yuan.

Equities: Investors are underweight US equities and overweight cash.

Alternatives: Here are recent PE portfolio company bankruptcies by sector.

Credit: After the CS wipeout it will be challenging to rebuild confidence in the AT1 market. This chart shows the yield on Bloomberg’s European CoCo index.

Cryptocurrency: Last week, crypto funds saw the largest inflows since July 2022.

Food for Thought: Lastly, the plant-based meat industry has been facing challenges.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Orders for automobiles declined last month.

US banks have tightened lending standards in autos and credit cards this quarter, which will weigh on consumers’ ability to spend.

Equities: Corporate insiders have been buying financial stocks over the past two weeks.

Credit: Borrowing surged after the SVB collapse.

Small banks have been selling high-yielding jumbo CDs to compensate for deposit losses.

Europe: Goldman sees further credit tightening ahead for Europe.

Asia – Pacific: Singapore’s industrial production is down sharply on a year-over-year basis.

Food for Thought: Here are US and Russian nuclear arsenals over time:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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