The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The number of unemployment applications has now surpassed the average of 2018, 2019, and 2022 levels.

Continuing claims are now well above last year’s levels.

Equities: Equities have diverged from bonds as recession risks resurface.

Credit: IG fund flows remain robust.

Rates: Flows into Treasury funds have been strong.

China: The PPI weakness has been driven by upstream price declines.

Food for Thought: NYC hotel prices:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The February ADP private payrolls index topped expectations.

The Beveridge Curve also points to an imbalance.

Equities: Will peak inflation spark a recovery for the S&P 500?

BofA’s Global Wealth & Investment Management Survey shows a massive preference for bonds over equities.

Credit: This chart shows S&P’s reasons for potential credit downgrades

Canada: The loonie is under pressure as the BoC leaves rates unchanged.

China: The PPI moved deeper into negative territory. This is good news for inflation in the US.

Food for Thought: Here are battery manufacturing forecasts:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The implied terminal rate climbed above 5.6%. Are we headed for 6%?

The United Kingdom: The pound is breaking below support.

Equities: Despite recent underperformance, tech mega-caps are still expensive.

Rates: The 2-year Treasury yield has been following the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

The Eurozone: Pantheon Macroeconomics sees the ECB ramping up QT later this year.

Cryptocurrency: Fundraising in crypto gaming jumped 79% over the past two months.

Food for Thought: Top-paid US CEOs:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:  The one-year sovereign credit default swap spread hit its highest level since 2011 when the debt ceiling impasse resulted in a US debt downgrade.

Equities: For the S&P 500 tech sector, expectations for quarterly earnings growth throughout 2023 have softened.

Rates: Treasury market bearish bets are hitting new extremes.

The Eurozone: The market-implied ECB terminal rate continues to climb, breaching 4% recently.

Japan: Real wages in Japan tumbled in January.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined from “greed” territory to neutral over the past month.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is a look at PC/notebook market share:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Supplier delivery times continued to shorten.

The United Kingdom: Companies are having a tough time recruiting.

The Eurozone: Speculative accounts have been boosting their bets on the euro.

Emerging Markets: Colombia’s core inflation continues to surge.

Equities: The S&P 500 held support at the 200-day moving average.

Credit: US life insurance holdings have a high allocation to corporate bonds.

Food for Thought: Workers needed to generate $1 million at S&P 500 companies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims continue to signal tightness in the labor market.

Continuing claims are now running slightly above last year’s levels.

The Eurozone: As with other inflation reports, Italy’s CPI topped expectations.

Rates: Risks are tilted to the upside for Treasury term premium amid concerns about sticky inflation.

Energy: Oil market implied volatility continues to trend lower.

Emerging Markets: Vehicle sales in South Africa are above last year’s levels.

Food for Thought: The Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2035.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Input prices for manufacturers started rising again last month, further spooking bond markets.

The Eurozone:  Upside surprises in recent CPI reports from Germany, France, Spain, and Belgium point to a reacceleration in inflation at the Eurozone level.

Credit: Mutual fund inflows into US investment-grade credit increased this year, outpacing ETF flows.

Energy: US gross crude oil exports are hitting record highs.

Emerging Markets: Market pricing of sovereign credit risk is meaningfully higher since 2010 for countries such as Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa.

Global Developments: Here is a look at February and year-to-date performance across major assets. The risk-on rally ran out of steam last month.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are average US tax refunds by year:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The labor differential (“jobs plentiful” – “jobs hard to get”) once again points to a tight labor market.

Next, The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index showed severe deterioration in the region’s business activity.

Europe: The contraction in Poland’s factory activity is slowing.

The United Kingdom: Brexit uncertainty has been less of a concern for businesses.

China: The official manufacturing PMI showed a massive factory activity surge in February.

Equities: Stocks still look overvalued. Here is the distribution of P/E ratios for the S&P 500.

Commodities: Here is the February performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: Gender pay and labor force participation gaps globally:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The median new home price is now down on a year-over-year basis.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to remove liquidity from the financial system.

Japan: The BoJ has been helping banks finance JGB purchases. Still, the 10-year yield is holding at the 50bp cap.

China:  Mobility indicators have surged.

Equities: Companies known for buying back their shares have been outperforming.

Commodities: The cobalt bubble has popped.

Food for Thought: How accurate is AI in answering medical questions?

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending was strong in January.

The FOMC is primarily focused on the non-housing core services PCE inflation, which registered its biggest monthly increase in over a year.

The Eurozone: Germany’s revised Q4 GDP report was ugly.

Equities: Stocks increasingly look unattractive relative to fixed-income products.

Credit: US and European high-yield fund flows have diverged.

Energy: US natural gas futures are rebounding boosted by expectations of a cold March.

Commodities: Funds have been boosting their long bets on gold futures.

Food for Thought: Here is the remote work share of postings on Indeed:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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