Greetings, The United States: With the US labor markets tightening (see chart), Economists continue to debate the reasons for the flat Phillips curve. Rates: Will the tax law negatively impact the repo market? The Eurozone: A “handful” of economists see an ECB rate hike next year. Credit: Here is the Moody’s bond …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 14th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Goods prices in the US continue to be a drag on inflation. Efficient global supply chains and online retail are some of the reasons. Global Developments: How do stock markets around the world compare to the US in terms of price-to-book ratios? The Eurozone: An indicator of German …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 12th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: US manufacturers are increasingly optimistic. The impending corporate tax cut is expected to give this sector a boost. And just like commercial builders, manufacturers are having a tough time hiring/retaining quality workers. High healthcare costs are also a problem. Rates: JP Morgan says that when real fed funds rates …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 12th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment was below consensus but remains elevated. Americans are extremely positive about their current situation but are less enthusiastic about the future. This chart shows the spread between the U. Michigan indices of current conditions and economic expectations. Rates: This chart shows that the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 11th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Where are we currently in terms of the financial and business cycles? Rates: Will the 10yr Treasury yield resistance line hold next year? The Eurozone: Analysts remain convinced that based on the real rate differentials, the euro is significantly overvalued. Equity Markets: Flows into US large cap …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This forecast shows business investment and net exports contributing more to the GDP over the next couple of years. China: Tighter liquidity conditions will be a headwind for the property markets and the economy as a whole. The Eurozone: It’s surprising that there is so much anti-EU sentiment …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The number of first-time homebuyers keeps climbing. How do these new buyers come up with a 20% down payment amid surging home prices? The answer is that relatively few of them do. Instead, first-time homebuyers tap FHA, VA, and USDA loans. They also increasingly rely on mortgage insurance (MI). “Low down payment” …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This table provides a summary comparison of the House and the Senate tax bills. Energy: This chart shows the OPEC+ (includes Russia, Kazakhstan) compliance with the production caps. Europe: The French now support a deeper European integration. Equity Markets: The S&P 500 has not had a down …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 5th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The IHS Markit manufacturing figures were also solid. However, the US manufacturing index now significantly lags the Eurozone. The Eurozone: The euro area’s factory activity hit the highest level since 2000. Here is a summary. Japan: Japan’s factory activity has been strengthening. Below is a summary from IHS …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Millennials are buying homes later in life, but they are starting to embrace homeownership. However, tight housing supplies and declining affordability could slow this trend. The Eurozone: Despite rapidly improving economic conditions, Eurosceptic parties in Italy are gaining momentum. Rates: The last three rate hikes were fully priced …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2017”
