Greetings, The United States: The New York Fed’s Nowcast GDP projection model shows the 4th quarter (of 2017) GDP growth at almost 4% (annualized). It’s also projecting a very strong first quarter of this year. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model appears to be closer to reality at 2.7%. The GDPNow forecast is consistent with …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Will the rising twin deficits (federal and trade) put downward pressure on the dollar? Credit: Leveraged loan funds’ AUM saw its first decline in months. China: Below is a forecast comparing China and India. Emerging Markets: Here is this year’s growth forecast across EM economies. Bitcoin: Merrill Lynch …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 4th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The US will face significant demographic challenges in the years to come as the population growth stalls. That is why the Fed is projecting a sub-2% GDP expansion over the long run. The Eurozone: The euro has been climbing in tandem with the Eurozone growth expectations, as investors bet …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 3rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: What’s the impact of the new tax bill on the GDP growth over the next couple of years? Global Developments: The global manufacturing boom should send the world GDP growth to a multi-year high. The Eurozone: Here is a forecast for the real GDP and the debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy, …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: To remain competitive, US manufacturers continue to focus on skilled labor and automation. Robot shipments hit record highs. China: China’s repo rates spiked going into the year-end. Facing stricter regulations, the nation’s banks have learned about “window dressing.” The Eurozone: The euro rose above $1.2 last week amid talk …
The Daily Shot Brief – December 22nd, 2017
Greetings, The United States: After the financial crisis, Americans with high credit scores were prioritizing credit card payments ahead of mortgage payments. Car payments remain ahead of everything else. However, subprime auto debt delinquencies at non-bank lenders keep climbing. Many of these firms dipped into “deep subprime,” a decision that’s becoming costly. China: Elevated …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 21st, 2017
Greetings, The United States: 2017 was a bad year for the dollar. Will the US currency weakness drive up export growth? China: Beijing is ramping up social media censorship. Europe: The Norwegian krone hit a multi-year low despite higher oil prices (shown against the euro below). Credit: US leveraged loan issuance …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: What’s the impact of the US fiscal stimulus on economic growth? What effect will this stimulus have on the federal deficit and debt? China: It appears that China’s households are shifting toward short-term financing (encouraged by their banks). This will not end well. The Eurozone: Some economists are …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: Rental costs are putting a squeeze on lower-income American households. China: The stock market continues to give up its recent gains. The Eurozone: Speculative bets on the euro rose to a record last week despite a higher short-term rate differential with the US. Credit: Which local governments …
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The Daily Shot Brief – December 15th, 2017
Greetings, The United States: Overall, American’s net-worth has been climbing, but the improvements have been highly uneven. That’s why the mean net worth is now above the pre-recession peak, while the median is not even close. The two indicators have completely diverged. A big part of the disconnect has to do with the ownership rates of stocks and …
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