Greetings, The United States: According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence in the US remains elevated, beating economists’ expectations. The “present situation” component of the Conference Board’s report has been exceptionally strong. Will we see this trend translate into higher consumer spending? Global Developments: Is the recent growth in world trade about to slow? …
Greetings, The United States: It takes more steps to start a business in the US than in many European countries. However, it takes less time than in some other nations. The United Kingdom: Despite the lowest unemployment rate in decades, British households are becoming more stressed financially. Declining real wages are the likely culprit. …
Greetings, The United States: Below is the breakdown of the core CPI between goods and services. A weak US dollar is likely to ease the persistent goods deflation. Global Developments: Below is a comparison of leading indicators for the largest economies. Credit: This map shows the Moody’s general obligation (municipal debt) rating for each …
Greetings, The United States: Wages are rising faster at smaller US firms. Rates: The market-implied probability of a third Fed rate hike this year dipped below 40%. Credit: The Moody’s stressed/distressed corporate credit universe has been gradually shrinking. Equity Markets: Valuation models show diminishing equity risk premium (vs. bonds). Fed officials have expressed …
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the full breakdown of US core inflation. Rates: Many fund managers view the start of the Fed’s balance sheet unwind (quantitative tightening) as a non-event. Commodities: Sugar futures have bounced off the lows. Equity Markets: Based on seasonal patterns, this is the time of the summer when …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, slower retail sales are forcing US businesses to cut back on consumer goods orders. – Here is the US Sales Manager Index (SMI) summary from World Economics. Gains in business confidence have slowed. Business activity and staffing levels continue to show improvement. The United Kingdom: Economists are …
Greetings, The United States: According to IHS Markit, US business optimism continues to improve. – Nonetheless, more economists now see downside risks to US growth. Bitcoin:The major cryptocurrencies seem to have stabilized for now. Here is Bitcoin. Equity Markets: US companies with higher exposure to China have outperformed. The market continues to ignore the risk …
Greetings, The United States: Below is a long-term chart of the “milk, eggs, and bread” basket (red) broken into the three components (in dollars). This basket is now the cheapest in a decade. – Here is a summary breakdown. Rates: As central banks taper their QE purchases and the Fed starts shrinking its balance sheet (first …
