Greetings, The United States: Most economists think that withdrawing from NAFTA will have a negative impact on economic growth. Changes to the rules of origin could be disruptive to the supply chain. The Eurozone: The European Commission boosted its forecast for the Eurozone’s economic growth. China: Here is how China’s energy mix …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: It’s a good time to be selling a house. The Eurozone: Italian nonperforming bank loan balances are headed in the right direction. China: Will Donal Trump try to address this rising goods trade surplus with the US? Equity Markets: Here are the latest fund flows for US-focused …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Some analysts see wage growth accelerating soon, as the spread between the underemployment rate (U-6) and the unemployment rate (U-3) declines further. This spread could be viewed as a measure of labor slack. Wages as a share of the GDP have been trending lower, boosting corporate margins. The Eurozone: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The US is struggling with low labor turnover, which is a significant contributor to the sluggish wage growth. And the reason for declining labor turnover is the aging corporate sector. Old US firms, many of which are heavily entrenched in their industry, increasingly dominate the economy. Nomura: – “The decline …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The ISM nonmanufacturing index beat expectations as export orders accelerated. Here is the full breakdown of the ISM report. Europe: The pound increasingly drives stock prices in the UK. Emerging Markets: The Venezuelan bolivar weakened further in the black market. One has to bring “bags” of the Venezuelan …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Economists expect a massive jump in the number of new nonfarm payrolls in October (reported later today). The report is expected to show a reversal of the September hurricane-driven decline. The Eurozone: The euro area’s factories are doing well, with the manufacturing index hitting the highest level since 2011. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 3rd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Reports from both Markit and ISM showed that US factory activity remained brisk in October. Markit’s summary (below) tells us that smaller manufacturers showed an improvement as well. Some analysts, however, point out that we still have a disconnect between “soft” and “hard” data. Here is the ISM index vs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The regional manufacturing surveys point to a very strong (national) ISM report on Wednesday (although lower than the September figure, which was distorted by the hurricanes). Here is a comment from Merrill Lynch on the concept of tax cuts “paying for themselves.” BofA Merrill Lynch: – “President Clinton worked with Republicans …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of the US GDP growth over time. Note that “private investment” includes changes in inventories. Looking at the fourth quarter, below is the starting point (green) for the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast: 2.9%. The Eurozone: Real rate differentials with the US continue to suggest …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Americans have been staying in their homes longer (before deciding to sell). Moody’s is projecting that many more homes will be sold next year as homeowners finally make their move. The forecast of over 700k more units sold, however, contradicts other assessments. The Eurozone: Based on the ECB’s announcement last …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2017”
