Greetings, United States: October retail sales were softer than expected amid signs of consumer activity losing momentum. Nonetheless, the overall rebound has been remarkable. Asia-Pacific: The world’s busiest domestic flight routes are in Asia. Emerging Markets: Until the pandemic, the short-end of EM yield curves has been uncorrelated with manufacturing PMIs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: Moderna’s vaccine news sent the Dow to a new record as we approach 30k. Alternatives: US public pensions are among the world’s biggest private-equity investors. Credit: The AAA spread curve for US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) shows strong demand for long duration. News of the COVID-19 vaccine led to a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment index surprised to the downside this month. As we’ve seen earlier, presidential elections tend to have a substantial impact on US sentiment indicators. Republicans are more upbeat about the current situation (1st panel), while Democrats are more optimistic about the future (2nd panel). However, the expectations …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The October CPI report showed a slowdown in price increases, with both the headline and the core inflation figures coming in below consensus. Zillow data point to more downside for rent inflation. United Kingdom: The rebound in factory production is slowing. China: Rates are rising across the board. Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2020”
Greetings, Credit: Let’s begin with the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Given the strength in the housing market, banks have been easing lending standards on mortgages. Consumer credit demand (credit cards, auto loans, etc.) has rebounded. Equities: A substantial increase in Treasury yields could pose a risk for growth stocks, especially the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: With more employees working from home, companies are increasingly trying to sublease office space (flooding the market). Despite the rally in office REITs (see chart), this sector will continue to struggle. Eurozone: Greek short-term bond yields have moved into negative territory. China: China’s tech shares have reversed the recent …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: Stocks rallied sharply on the US election outcome and vaccine news. The Dow surged nearly 3%, boosted by financials and energy. Credit: US business loan balances continue to shrink as companies pay down their revolving facilities and refinance loans in the capital markets. China: The latest five-year plan reflects a shift …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: The market is pleased with Biden’s electoral win and reduced uncertainty (for now). Stock futures are up sharply in early trading. The collapse in vol (less uncertainty) has been supporting the post-election bounce, according to Deutsche Bank. The put-call ratio declined last week. Rates: The 10-year Treasury futures volume spiked in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2020”
Greetings, Credit: Corporate bonds saw substantial inflows this week as Treasury yields tumbled. This chart shows states’ revenue shortfall this year. Since significant support from the federal government is unlikely at this point, it’s a bit surprising to see further strength in the muni market this week. Alternatives: Macro hedge funds are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2020”
Greetings, Equities: A “blue wave” is not likely as Republicans seem to retain Senate control. Here is what this means for the markets. Republicans in the Senate have no appetite for a massive stimulus bill. With the year-end income cliff approaching (see this chart/comment from Oxford Economics), the Fed is now more likely to step in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2020”
