Greetings, United States: Typically, Treasury yields decline in response to a soft jobs report, but that wasn’t the case on Friday. Weakness in the labor market raises the odds of massive fresh stimulus and more debt issuance. The yield curve continues to steepen. Europe: How long before Europe hits herd immunity at the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 8th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Who are the largest sellers and buyers of order flow? Alternatives: Which sectors saw the most private equity deals last year? Rates: The aggregate duration of fixed-income markets keeps climbing, which will exacerbate losses if rates rise suddenly. United Kingdom: The BoE told banks they have six months to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The strength in mortgage applications has been impressive. United Kingdom: The BoE is expected to keep policy on hold (no new stimulus). The central bank financed 122% of the annual budget deficit last year. The gilt curve has steepened. China: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, China’s budget deficit widened substantially …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: What are the differences between the Gang of 10 and Biden’s stimulus plans? • Dollar allocations: • Impact on incomes: China: As we saw in the official report, China’s service sector growth lost momentum last month. Commodities: The largest silver ETF tumbled on Tuesday as the Reddit (retail) trade soured. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Pandemic-driven housing appraisal waivers keep climbing. Mortgage lending standards eased slightly last quarter. Eurozone: Logistics bottlenecks have been a problem for European manufacturers. Emerging Markets: India is gearing up to finance a massive budget. The stock market liked the news, though bonds sold off Equities: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Consumers are more apt to spend the new stimulus checks than the CARES Act payments last year. Eurozone: The euro-area broad money supply expansion accelerated further in December. The rapid money supply expansion points to a potential rebound in economic activity once the pandemic is under control. Commodities: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Business and consumer confidence indicators have diverged. United Kingdom: New COVID cases are falling. China: Short-term rates keep climbing. This is certainly one way to delever the financial system. Here is the 10yr yield vs. the overnight rate. Equities: VIX has diverged from the 30-day historical volatility. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: GameStop’s market value hit $24 billion. As a demonstration of just how distorted the market has become, here is the share price of a relatively small Australian mining company called GME Resources. The good news for the miner is that it has the same ticker symbol as GameStop (but in Australia), and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The S&P 500 realized correlation is dangerously low. Rates: US government bond overnight repo rates are back in negative territory as money markets are flooded with liquidity. Commodities: China’s steel mills are losing money. China: China dominates the world’s lithium-ion battery supply chain. United Kingdom: Businesses are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 27th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Encouraged by the Reddit group r/wallstreetbets (and other online discussion boards), retail traders caused a massive short-squeeze in GameStop shares. The practice of targeted short-selling appears to have been permanently altered. Credit: Supported by the Fed’s purchases, agency MBS debt continues to rally. MBS spreads have tumbled going into the year-end, pushing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2021”
