Greetings, United States: What are the differences between the Gang of 10 and Biden’s stimulus plans? • Dollar allocations: • Impact on incomes: China: As we saw in the official report, China’s service sector growth lost momentum last month. Commodities: The largest silver ETF tumbled on Tuesday as the Reddit (retail) trade soured. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Pandemic-driven housing appraisal waivers keep climbing. Mortgage lending standards eased slightly last quarter. Eurozone: Logistics bottlenecks have been a problem for European manufacturers. Emerging Markets: India is gearing up to finance a massive budget. The stock market liked the news, though bonds sold off Equities: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Consumers are more apt to spend the new stimulus checks than the CARES Act payments last year. Eurozone: The euro-area broad money supply expansion accelerated further in December. The rapid money supply expansion points to a potential rebound in economic activity once the pandemic is under control. Commodities: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Business and consumer confidence indicators have diverged. United Kingdom: New COVID cases are falling. China: Short-term rates keep climbing. This is certainly one way to delever the financial system. Here is the 10yr yield vs. the overnight rate. Equities: VIX has diverged from the 30-day historical volatility. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: GameStop’s market value hit $24 billion. As a demonstration of just how distorted the market has become, here is the share price of a relatively small Australian mining company called GME Resources. The good news for the miner is that it has the same ticker symbol as GameStop (but in Australia), and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The S&P 500 realized correlation is dangerously low. Rates: US government bond overnight repo rates are back in negative territory as money markets are flooded with liquidity. Commodities: China’s steel mills are losing money. China: China dominates the world’s lithium-ion battery supply chain. United Kingdom: Businesses are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 27th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Encouraged by the Reddit group r/wallstreetbets (and other online discussion boards), retail traders caused a massive short-squeeze in GameStop shares. The practice of targeted short-selling appears to have been permanently altered. Credit: Supported by the Fed’s purchases, agency MBS debt continues to rally. MBS spreads have tumbled going into the year-end, pushing …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 26th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Existing home sales were quite strong in December. The second chart shows the year-to-date cumulative trends. The number of US homes for sale is at multi-decade lows. United Kingdom: The government’s support for the job market is expected to climb further, … … pushing borrowing beyond £400bn this year. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Philly Fed’s manufacturing report showed solid factory activity in the region, exceeding market expectations. The report also showed manufacturers facing some price pressures, which they are passing on to their customers. United Kingdom: The CBI report showed UK manufacturers struggling with the confluence of the pandemic and Brexit. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Fed communications remain highly focused on employment and household spending instead of inflation. By holding down rates, the US central bank has allowed the federal government to massively increase its debt without incurring higher interest expenses. Will the Fed sustain this trend as the US implements another fiscal stimulus package? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 21st, 2021”
