The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Consumer confidence among higher-income Americans is recovering. That’s not the case for those in the lower-income brackets.   Emerging Markets: Latin America has been devastated by COVID.   Energy: The slump in US natural gas futures continues.   Equities: Here is BofA’s chart showing the recent spike in call option volume. …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2020

Greetings,   Equities: US-focused ETFs took in $62 billion of inflows in November – the highest monthly inflow in history, according to State Street.   Credit: The US middle-market loan volume is at multi-year lows.   Rates: The markets are signaling higher inflation ahead. • Stocks that benefit from higher inflation are outperforming.   • Demand for …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Long-term market-based inflation expectations are grinding higher.   China: Exports accelerated last month, exceeding forecasts. The trade surplus hit a record high.   Commodities: Gold outflows have been extreme.   Equities: Citi’s sentiment index is deep in euphoria territory.   Global Developments: This chart shows how speculative accounts are positioned in …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Will the government extend these emergency programs? The new bipartisan bill contemplates adding a few months. Here is a comparison to the GOP’s bill introduced a few months back.   United Kingdom: The probability of the BoE taking rates into negative territory has diminished.   Energy: Brent is testing $50/bbl.   …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2020

Greetings,   United States: The Fed’s Beige Book report appears to be somewhat more upbeat. Here is the usage of the words “strong” and “weak.”   Eurozone: The euro continues to climb, exacerbating disinflationary pressures. This trend is bound to make the ECB nervous.   China: The nation’s service sector activity accelerated further last month. …

The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2020

Greetings,   United States: Survey data, such as the ISM index above, point to improvements in business investment.   China: Increased defaults will lead to tighter liquidity for non-bank financial institutions, according to TS Lombard.   Emerging Markets: Mexico’s private credit continues to worsen.   Commodities: Miners are adding new projects as iron ore prices rise. …