Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

 

The United States: According to Oxford Economics, the maximum impact of the Fed’s tightening will be felt over the next couple of quarters. We may see a modest recession.

However, markets have been pricing in economic strength. Are investors in for a disappointment?

Global Developments: Recessions have generally been rarer through time, especially since 1982.

Equities: How did different equity factors react to the Fed’s hawkish message of “higher for longer”?

Energy: Energy shares (XLE) have been underperforming oil prices (USO).

Europe: Germany’s producer prices saw the biggest yearly decline on record in August.

Food for Thought: Here are the highest and lowest men-to-women ratios:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Shipping rates appear to be stabilizing as the freight recession eases.

The United Kingdom: This chart shows the lengths of economic expansions.

Europe: Norway’s inflation forecasts were also revised higher.

Energy: WTI crude oil is trading above Deutsche Bank’s fair value estimate based on the dollar and global growth.

Equities: As the Fed pauses rate hikes, the stock market performance will depend on whether the US enters a recession.

Rates: Unlike state and local governments, the US Treasury did not term out more of its debt, which is resulting in sharply higher interest expenses.

Food for Thought: Assets by generation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Increased talk of a “soft landing” tends to precede a recession.

Homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly dipped this month as elevated mortgage rates and reduced affordability erode demand.

Rates: Historically, the timing of the last rate hike coincided with a cycle peak in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Energy: The recent crude rally has been driven mostly by higher demand.

Global Developments: Speculative accounts have covered their bets against the dollar.

Canada: Industrial producer prices jumped last month.

Commodities: Sugar futures hit a multi-year high amid export restrictions in Asia and concerns about the sugar cane harvest in Brazil.

Food for Thought: Here is reliance on key minerals in vehicle production:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Import prices were unchanged in August.

The United Kingdom: The housing market continues to struggle (2 charts).

China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index has been testing support.

Commodities: Gold implied vol hit the lowest level since 2019.

Equities: On average, more NYSE stocks are making new one-year price lows.

Credit: Much higher interest costs are ahead for many firms.

Food for Thought: US leading causes of death:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Core producer prices were closer to expectations.

Europe: At what age do young people leave their parental home?

Emerging Markets: Indonesia’s exports are holding up.

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures hit a record high.

Equities: US households’ overweight equities exposure doesn’t bode well for longer-term returns.

Rates: Treasury market implied vol continues to sink.

Food for Thought: Preferred alcoholic beverages:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The Eurozone: Money supply continues to contract, driven by weak bank credit and a shift to long-term liabilities. What does that mean for euro-area stocks?

Japan: Japanese investors bought a lot of foreign bonds last week.

The United States: Even with the core CPI coming in above expectations, the market’s response to the inflation report remained subdued. The Fed is expected to keep the target rate unchanged this month, with about a 40% chance of a hike in November.

Energy:  Crude oil prices continue to surge on expectations of tight supplies.

European natural gas prices rose 10% on Wednesday.

Equities: Will we see a jump in VIX as the economy slows?

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s central bank held rates steady despite hyperinflation.

Food for Thought: Instacart’s IPO pricing is well below peak valuations.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment index edged lower last month.

The United Kingdom: It’s been warm in central England.

The Eurozone: Germany’s ZEW expectations index edged higher even as current conditions deteriorated.

Commodities: Aluminum demand has been supported by the energy transition.

Equities: This chart shows the largest companies in the S&P 500 over time.

Credit: US banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio has resumed its climb.

Food for Thought: Sports-league revenues:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Fewer resignations signal a sharp decline in wage growth.

The one-year consumer inflation expectations from the NY Fed’s latest survey edged higher last month, but the three-year index declined.

China: Are investors too gloomy on China?

Equities: Companies with exposure to the US government have underperformed recently.

Japan:  The yen strengthened this week as the BoJ signaled tighter policy ahead.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s policy rate differential with the US is expected to tighten.

Commodities: Commodity prices have risen despite the strengthening of the US dollar.

Food for Thought: Here are US domestic terrorism-related incidents involving known offenders:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Household net worth hit a record high last quarter, boosted by stocks and house prices.

China: Beijing says “do not bet” against the renminbi, leading the currency to jump in response to the warning.

Credit: Companies are borrowing at a record pace.

Equities: Market breadth worsened in recent weeks as most stocks widened their underperformance vs. the S&P 500.

Here is the equal-weight index…

and here are small caps.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside, sending the peso sharply lower on expectations of faster rate cuts.

Food for Thought: Office space construction vs. demolitions:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Inflation is following the pattern we saw in previous spikes.

Europe: The Polish zloty tumbled after the central bank’s decisive rate cut.

Emerging Markets: Economists continue to boost their forecasts for India’s business investment.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with BTC in the lead and Litecoin (LTC) underperforming top peers.

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures hit a record high amid growing demand for beef.

Equities: Equity sentiment is normalizing from bullish extremes

Food for Thought: Overqualified workers in advanced economies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief