Greetings, Equities: The most liquid US ETFs (SPY, QQQ, and IWM) have been gapping up at the open more frequently than ever before. Credit: Foreign banks have been tapping the US commercial paper market. Unlike their US counterparts, foreign banks typically don’t have access to US dollar deposits. Given the massive spike in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The January CPI report was a bit weaker than the markets were expecting. • Headline CPI: Treasury yields pulled back. China: The renminbi keeps grinding higher (the offshore yuan shown below). Energy: Technicals point to downside risk for WTI crude. Equities: Goldman’s non-profitable tech index is approaching 250% year-over-year …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2021”
Greetings, China: Consumer inflation indicators are in negative territory. • Headline CPI: Some of the core CPI weakness was due to a decline in transportation costs, as Bejing asks everyone not to travel over the holidays. The spikes in this index are due to the Lunar New Year timing. With these trends likely …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Economists are concerned that the additional $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus will overheat the nation’s economy. China: Total debt levels continue to climb. Bitcoin: Tesla’s Bitcoin purchase sent the cryptocurrency to a new record. Will we see $50k shortly? Miami’s mayor wants to have Bitcoin on the city’s balance sheet. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Typically, Treasury yields decline in response to a soft jobs report, but that wasn’t the case on Friday. Weakness in the labor market raises the odds of massive fresh stimulus and more debt issuance. The yield curve continues to steepen. Europe: How long before Europe hits herd immunity at the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 8th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Who are the largest sellers and buyers of order flow? Alternatives: Which sectors saw the most private equity deals last year? Rates: The aggregate duration of fixed-income markets keeps climbing, which will exacerbate losses if rates rise suddenly. United Kingdom: The BoE told banks they have six months to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The strength in mortgage applications has been impressive. United Kingdom: The BoE is expected to keep policy on hold (no new stimulus). The central bank financed 122% of the annual budget deficit last year. The gilt curve has steepened. China: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, China’s budget deficit widened substantially …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: What are the differences between the Gang of 10 and Biden’s stimulus plans? • Dollar allocations: • Impact on incomes: China: As we saw in the official report, China’s service sector growth lost momentum last month. Commodities: The largest silver ETF tumbled on Tuesday as the Reddit (retail) trade soured. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Pandemic-driven housing appraisal waivers keep climbing. Mortgage lending standards eased slightly last quarter. Eurozone: Logistics bottlenecks have been a problem for European manufacturers. Emerging Markets: India is gearing up to finance a massive budget. The stock market liked the news, though bonds sold off Equities: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Consumers are more apt to spend the new stimulus checks than the CARES Act payments last year. Eurozone: The euro-area broad money supply expansion accelerated further in December. The rapid money supply expansion points to a potential rebound in economic activity once the pandemic is under control. Commodities: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2021”
