The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Economic activity in the US has taken a marked downturn. December retail sales surprised to the downside.

The United Kingdom: The RICS housing market index tumbled last month, surprising to the downside.

Emerging Markets: Global investors have been rotating into EM stocks.

Equities: Here is a look at relative factor valuations.

Market focus has shifted from inflation to recession, with the stock-bond correlation turning negative.

Rates: US bond fund inflows surged last week.

Japan: Foreigners have been dumping JGBs.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is an illustration of nuclear fusion:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The first manufacturing report of the month was a disaster. The NY Fed’s regional factory activity index dipped to the 2008 lows.

Financial conditions continue to ease, frustrating Fed officials. This index is a Z-score tracking the overall level of financial stress in the U.S. money, bond, and equity markets to help assess the availability and cost of credit.

The Eurozone: Germany’s economic sentiment is rebounding rapidly.

Japan: The BoJ is not budging on yield control. Here is the market reaction.

Commodities: The rally in gold has been too fast relative to the dollar’s decline.

Equities: Financials dragged the Dow lower on Tuesday.

Global Developments: We have some home price indices and valuations.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the best and worst-performing hard commodities in 2022.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The U. Michigan’s 1-year consumer inflation expectations declined further, but longer-term inflation projections edged up.

The fiscal and financial conditions drag on growth will ease this year.

The Eurozone: For the first time in a year, economists upgraded the Eurozone GDP forecast as the energy crisis eases.

Energy: European natural gas prices continue to tumble amid elevated inventories.

China: Elevated savings could generate a spending boom this year.

Credit: It’s been a good few days for European corporate bond sales.

Commodities: Iron ore futures declined as Beijing cracks down on rising prices.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the deadliest places for journalists:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Here are the contributions to the -0.1% CPI decline in December.

Cryptocurrencies: Cryptos started the year on a strong note.

Commodities: Iron ore continues to surge on China’s reopening.

Energy: China is importing “rebranded” Russian oil.

Equities: Meme stocks are soaring.

Credit: This scatterplot shows the fixed-income universe risk/reward profile (risk = correlation to the S&P 500, reward = yield).

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the 15 largest employers in the world.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Here are new home sales vs. houses under construction.

The yield curve inversion deepened this week.

Japan: The dam is about to break. The BoJ’s battle with the markets is becoming too costly, as the central bank buys massive amounts of JGBs.

Meanwhile, inflation is accelerating.

Equities: US small-caps appear attractively valued, but depressed small business sentiment poses downside risks.

Energy: US crude oil inventories jumped last week.

Global Developments: Global inflation continues to slow.

Food for Thought: Here is the share of global goods exports by region:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wholesale used vehicle prices are down almost 15% from a year ago.

Weaker fertilizer prices signal lower food inflation ahead.

Europe: Are outflows from European equity funds over?

Cryptocurrency: Investors are betting that the GBTC discount to NAV will narrow.

Commodities: Palladium has not participated in the precious metals rally.

Equities: The S&P 500 will face resistance near 4,000.

Global Developments: The market is sitting on significant USD cash exposure, which is vulnerable to further liquidation as the dollar’s safe-haven appeal declines, according to Deutsche Bank.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the global Lorenz Curve.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Total consumer credit is now above the pre-COVID trend.

In the labor market, job gains have been the highest in sectors that experienced the biggest COVID-shock losses.

Equities: US shares with higher international sales have been outperforming as the dollar weakens and China reopens.

Credit: The largest HY ETF saw a hefty capital inflow last week.

Emerging Markets: EM stocks are officially in a bull market.

Japan: The 10yr JGB is once again testing the BoJ’s resolve, with some trades taking place above the 0.5% cap.

Global Developments: Hedge funds are boosting their bets against the dollar.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are cold and flu medicine preferences:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wage growth surprised to the downside, boosting hopes for slower inflation ahead.

Stocks surged as the payrolls data and ISM report showed signs of easing inflation.

The Eurozone: Euro-area inflation dropped more than expected last month, but the core CPI continued to climb.

China: Chinese A-shares are attractively valued relative to history, while investable/offshore stocks are not particularly cheap.

Emerging Markets: India is forecasting a 7% GDP growth in 2023.

Cryptocurrency: SOL bounced last week after a massive drop in 2022.

Commodities: Copper is rallying amid China’s reopening and a softer US dollar.

Food for Thought: Here’s a look at the US teacher shortages.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Economists don’t see significant increases in unemployment going forward.

Looking toward the housing market, here is home price appreciation by price tier.

The Eurozone: Here are the CPI trends for Spain, France, and Germany.

Equities: What returns should we expect over the next 5 and 10 years, given the current S&P 500 valuation (PE ~16.6x)?

Rates: The Fed’s quantitative tightening has picked up momentum. But, the MBS portfolio unwind has been slow due to collapsed mortgage refi activity.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptos had a good week, with Litecoin (LTC) outperforming other large tokens.

Food for Thought: To conclude the week, here is who betting markets expect the next Speaker of the House will be:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market sees rate cuts starting as soon as July, despite the FOMC minutes stating “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023.”

The labor market imbalance persists, with over 1.7 job openings per unemployed American.

China: Beijing is stepping up its efforts to bail out property developers. Developers’ stocks and bonds are rallying (two charts).

The United Kingdom: Foreigners continue to dump gilts.

Japan: Traders are pressing their bets against the BoJ’s yield control policy via JGB futures.

Equities: Earnings expectations have been correlated with US job openings.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are expected cybercrime costs:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief