Greetings, United States: Physical store sales surged this year, with gains outpacing online stores. Canada: Household leverage is now substantially higher than in the US. One caveat is that Canada’s disposable income is more “disposable” than that of US households (due to healthcare expenses in the US). United Kingdom: Business closures accelerated …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: One-year consumer inflation expectations continue to surge, but the three-year indicator seems to have peaked. Households expect to boost their spending substantially next year. United Kingdom: The odds of a BoE rate hike this year have collapsed below 20% amid omicron jitters. In contrast, the Fed is becoming …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Traders were concerned about another upside inflation surprise, but the November CPI report was roughly in line with expectations. That’s why stocks and bonds rallied despite a multi-decade high CPI print. Here’s the breakdown of goods vs. services: China: The renminbi has diverged from equity prices. Emerging Markets: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 13th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The 2-year Treasury yield climbed above 0.7% as traders bet on a more hawkish Fed policy. The market is now nearly certain that we will see three rate hikes next year. Eurozone: COVID cases appear to have peaked in Germany, … … but the number of patients in intensive care …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: We have some updates on supply-chain challenges. Here’s the Port of LA container ships’ waiting time: Searches for items related to supply chain disruptions on Google: United Kingdom: Natural gas prices are surging again. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank announced another aggressive rate hike and indicated there is at …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: It appears that the debt ceiling showdown has been averted for now. China: China’s government bonds have outperformed EM and US debt. Energy: Investment in hydrogen production has exploded. Equities: Buybacks have been a key component of US large-cap returns. Credit: The LIBOR deadline generated a surge …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The real fed funds rate is at extremes no matter which index is used to measure inflation. It points to extraordinary levels of monetary accommodation. Eurozone: Here are the latest French presidential election polls. Japan: Defense spending is surging. China: Despite all the bluster about staying the course …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Services ISM PMI hit another record high pointing to robust service-sector activity in Q4. United Kingdom: The market-based probability of a rate hike this year dropped to 25%. Related to the above, the pound hit the lowest level in a year vs. USD. China: Shares of tech firms …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: These rapid improvements in the labor market are allowing the Fed to accelerate QE taper. Eurozone: Suppliers to Germany’s automotive industry are gloomy. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s domestic demand is highly sensitive to policy rate changes. China: Beijing gave leveraged developers some breathing room, but the credit crisis in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Funds have been dumping the most expensive tech shares.. Momentum stocks continue to underperform. Rates: Speculative accounts are betting on further flattening in the 10yr – 30yr part of the curve. Cryptocurrency: Open interest in bitcoin’s futures market remains high despite last week’s sell-off. United States: The ADP employment …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2021”
