Greetings, The United States: Hurricane Harvey’s impact on US growth is showing up in the economic data. There is some debate, however, whether Harvey explains all of the weak data reported on Friday. Here is the monthly change in industrial production. The direct damage is now in the range of $60 – $100bn but …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of US exports by country. Emerging Markets: China’s real fixed investment growth is completely driven by the state. Equity Markets: A Credit Suisse survey says than many investors expect the stock market to outperform everything else in the second half of the year. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Is wage growth about to accelerate (see more detail here)? Credit: The Moody’s bond covenant index (which measures investor protections built into the bond documents) is drifting lower. Energy: Refinery inputs took a massive hit as a result of Harvey. And this is propane production by region. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the jobs openings report which beat economists’ forecast (hitting an all-time high). Here is the number of unemployed Americans per job opening. Is stronger wage growth on the horizon? And this chart shows the Beveridge curve (openings vs. unemployment). Rates: Here is the path of real yields …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Consumer inflation expectations three years out hit a record low. This trend will add to the argument for waiting with the Fed rate hikes until next year. However, US financial conditions continue to ease despite the quarterly rate hikes. Some at the Fed will focus on this trend to argue …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Economists have bumped up their estimates for the third quarter GDP growth. Below is the consensus forecast over time. And here is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. Credit: Investment-grade bond inflows remain robust, even as HY debt funds experience outflows. Energy: Crude oil and gasoline sold off on Friday, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States:We’ve seen a significant divergence between total and prime-age labor force participation. Some of this is due to higher school enrollment rates among younger Americans. What else is going on? Credit: Leveraged loan issuance has been brisk this year. Energy: This chart shows the trend in solar installation costs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: These scatter plots show the recent breakdown in correlation between economic growth and inflation. That’s why some FOMC members are calling for a pause in rate hikes. Credit: Global high-yield (HY) corporate bond issuance keeps climbing. Global Developments: Consumer sentiment and spending continue to diverge across advanced economies. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The percentage of first-time homebuyers is on the rise. Homebuilders have been putting out more “starter” new homes (in blue and red). But those increases haven’t been sufficient to accommodate the demand from first-time homebuyers. China:Is the softening credit impulse telling us that China’s economy will weaken in the months to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The regional Fed surveys have been pointing to a solid national manufacturing report. Indeed, the August ISM index reached the highest level since 2011. The NY Fed Nowcast model indeed showed an increase in the GDP projection as a result of the ISM data. China: With the currency stable, foreign …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2017”
