Greetings, The United States: How is the fiscal stimulus expected to impact the GDP growth over the next three years? Energy Markets: The currencies of energy producing countries have caught up with oil prices. Bitcoin: Leveraged accounts (such as hedge funds) are net long Bitcoin futures. Equity Markets: More managers …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 23rd, 2018”
Greetings, Let’s begin by taking a quick look at one of the topics that are likely to get a great deal of attention at the 46th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (this week). The United States: The ECRI index of leading indicators points to more economic strength ahead …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 22nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the recent US dollar weakness accelerate the import price growth? If so, we should see the effect in the CPI later this year. Japan: Has Abenomics been effective? Energy Markets: Refinery inputs remain elevated for this time of the year. Bitcoin: Here is an estimate of market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 19th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The US economy is currently thought to be expanding at full capacity, with the gap between the actual and potential GDP now closed. The US government’s projections of a 3-4% GDP growth over the next decade, therefore, appears to be completely unrealistic. Global Developments: This chart shows the relative …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 18th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Here is how the US corporate tax rate compares to other economies when state taxes are included. Credit: With high-yield bond spreads at the lowest level in a decade, it’s hard to imagine that there is much upside in the sector. Energy Markets: Which oil producing nations are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Are investors ignoring the rising odds of the federal government shutdown this week? The probability in the betting markets is still below 30% but climbing. Credit: 2017 was a good year for investment-grade bond fund inflows. China: The Chinese renminbi is advancing against the dollar (strongest in two …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 16th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The Atlanta Fed wage tracker shows no evidence of US wages accelerating. Given the tight labor markets, this is not the outcome most economists have been expecting. Credit: As China spooked the bond markets on Wednesday, investors pulled a massive amount of capital from the largest HY ETF (HYG). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The inventories of single-family homes on the market keep dwindling. Credit: The Volcker Rule has damaged liquidity in the corporate bond market. Providing a loan to a company is fine but holding a corporate bond is “speculation”? Banks are in the business of assuming credit risk, no matter what …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Is the high job quits rate telling us that wage growth is about to accelerate (better give your workers a raise or they will quit)? Credit: Student loan delinquencies remain elevated. China: The stock market continues to climb. Bitcoin: The lower part of the next chart shows …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: There is a widening gap between consumer sentiment and the savings rate. In the past, this divergence was a precursor to the end of the economic cycle. Similarly, the disappearance of the output gap also indicates that we are in the late stage of the cycle. Credit: High-yield credit …
