The Daily Shot Brief – January 9th, 2018

Greetings,

 

The United States: There is a widening gap between consumer sentiment and the savings rate. In the past, this divergence was a precursor to the end of the economic cycle.

Source: Piper Jaffray

Similarly, the disappearance of the output gap also indicates that we are in the late stage of the cycle.

Source: Market Ethos, Richardson GMP

 

Credit: High-yield credit default swap spreads (CDX) dip below 300bps for the first time in years.

Source: Bloomberg

 

China: Economists anticipate a weaker economic growth this year, as fixed asset investment slows. Elevated interest rates are taking their toll on the property markets.

Source: BMI Research

 

Bitcoin: Bitcoin appears to be range-bound, unable to breach the $17k level again.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equity Markets: Corporate America is increasingly optimistic about earn

Source: @LizAnnSonders, @Bloomberg, @biancoresearch

 

Emerging Markets: Oman will be the first EM country issuing debt this year to help plug a $7.8bn budget deficit hole. Will the rating agencies downgrade Oman to junk?

Source: Barclays, @tracyalloway

 

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders remain near record levels.

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

 

Global Developments: This chart shows which economies will see the fastest and the slowest growth this year.

Source: @mc_economist, @TheEconomist; Read full article

 


Food for Thought: Confidence in the justice system by country.

Source: @OECD; Read full article

 

 

Edited by Joseph N Cohen


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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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