Greetings, The United States: Americans have been staying in their homes longer (before deciding to sell). Moody’s is projecting that many more homes will be sold next year as homeowners finally make their move. The forecast of over 700k more units sold, however, contradicts other assessments. The Eurozone: Based on the ECB’s announcement last …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of US durable goods orders (reported on Wednesday). The Eurozone: The probability of a rate hike by the end of next year is now below 30%. Emerging Markets: With Germany tightening the financial screws on Turkey, the nation’s markets remain under pressure. At some …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 27th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: There is still a great deal of speculation about who will be Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair. John Taylor’s odds have risen significantly in the betting markets. This recent interview with John Taylor (just takes a few minutes) suggests that he will advocate for a higher natural rate. And that would …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States:This version of the Phillips Curve is forecasting wages to be growing at over 3% annually a year from now. The Eurozone: This chart compares the French composite output subindex (both manufacturing and services) with the nation’s GDP growth. Emerging Markets: Here is the JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency Index. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: How close is the next recession? Credit Suisse says we are nowhere near the end of the cycle. • This expansion has been quite long by historical standards. However, given how slow the recovery has been, the cycle could end up extending further (potentially creating even bigger asset bubbles?). • While the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Here is an updated Fed chair betting-markets probability table. Will the next Fed chair focus on the super-easy financial conditions in the US as a potential risk to the financial system? Bloomberg’s index is now at the “easiest” level on record. The Eurozone: As Spain moves to take control of the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Morgan Stanley is suggesting that slower declines in the velocity of money are pointing to higher inflation ahead. Perhaps. If the trend is due to a stronger GDP growth, higher inflation is indeed likely. However, the velocity of money trend has eased because the expansion in the money supply is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 20th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers still have not recovered from the 2008 economic shock. Discretionary service spending is improving much slower than during the previous cycles. The Eurozone: Analysts continue to suggest that the euro is overvalued. China: China’s rising budget deficit (including state-owned enterprises) points to increased fiscal stimulus in recent …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: According to Gallup, US economic confidence remains elevated but has come off the highs. Who in the US is building homes and why? Credit: Part of the reason investors have been comfortable with sub-investment grade debt recently is the decline in the number of “stressed” credits. Rates: Trading …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 17th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: US retail sales beat consensus, but the latest monthly increase was driven by the hurricanes (damaged/flooded car replacements and higher spending on gasoline). On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth remains stable (shown here ex. gasoline spending). Credit: US banks continue to report a rise in consumer loan delinquncies. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 16th, 2017”
