Greetings, The United States: The SMI report continues to show healthy economic growth for the US in February. The Market and Sales Growth indices eased a bit, but confidence remains elevated, and hiring has picked up. Equity Markets: These two charts show how different types of US stocks performed under various market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The current economic expansion is expected to be the longest and one of the slowest on record. Equity Markets: VIX remains dislocated relative to RVX. For those who can trade implied volatility on the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000, this could be an opportunity. Energy Markets: US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index has risen sharply over the past couple of weeks amid market volatility. Equity Markets: Here is the evolution of the relative market capitalization across the largest economies since 1900. Energy Markets: The supply of LNG tankers is tightening. The Eurozone: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 16th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Is the weak dollar finally showing up in higher apparel prices (since most clothing is imported)? And why did hospital costs rise all of a sudden? Equity Markets: Some companies have been bypassing the IPO process, choosing Reg A+ to list shares. But performance has been a problem …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US consumer debt increases are driven by non-housing credit, primarily student and auto loans. Student debt delinquency rates remain elevated, while problem auto loan balances continue to climb. Equity Markets: Will the market correction be extended this year? Long-term market history shows much larger yearly drawdowns than what …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: While the job market continues to gain momentum, employment growth is slowing. The pool of “idle” workers is shrinking amid the aging US population. Employers are looking for ways to grow without significant staff increases. Equity Markets: Here is a comparison of the latest market correction with the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: According to Moody’s, “the US already stands out as one of the most highly leveraged governments.” Moreover, leverage and the interest burden are both expected to spike over the next decade (second chart below). The only thing that keeps the rating agencies from downgrading US federal debt (for now) …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: How well did the yield curve predict prior recessions? China: Here is an interesting question. How much of the recent dollar weakness is due to Beijing tolerating a stronger renminbi? Equity Markets: It’s interesting that the stock market had tolerated bond yield increases for some time, but …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 9th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will the stock market jitters impact household consumption? China: Beijing is imposing record fines on the nation’s banks. Equity Markets: Historical volatility jumped this week, which means that VAR models will be penalizing equity exposure more than they have recently. Will this impact demand for stocks? The Eurozone: Despite …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 8th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: 2018 could be a record year for US companies’ overseas mergers and acquisitions. China: China’s pension shortfall has been rising. Equity Markets: The number of Bloomberg stories mentioning “healthy correction” hits a record high. Rates: Analysts expect higher Treasury issuance across the curve over the next …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2018”
