Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

 

The United States: Freezing weather conditions hampered card spending in January.

The Eurozone: Yields are rebounding.

Emerging Markets: Peru cut rates again.

Commodities: Global gold ETFs continued to see outflows.

Equities: Retail investors remain bullish.

Credit: Investment-grade bond fund flows remain robust.

Rates: TLT formed a golden cross.

Food for Thought: Cheaper to rent or buy?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Supply chain pressures are relatively low despite the Suez Canal fiasco.

The Eurozone: It is rare for the ECB to cut rates when stocks have not been declining for several months.

China: China’s disinflationary pressures persist, partly reflecting weak domestic demand. In January, the CPI had its biggest year-over-year decline since the GFC.

Equities: Small-cap underperformance widened in recent days, exacerbated by pressure on smaller banks.

Rates: A record-high 10-year note auction was met with solid demand on Wednesday, sending yields lower.

Commodities: Cocoa futures hit a record high, taking out the 1977 peak.

Global Developments: According to JP Morgan Global Research, 56% of central banks will be easing by the time the Fed starts cutting rates.

Food for Thought: Public pensions investing in China:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Tight lending standards still signal a slowdown in consumer credit ahead.

Europe: Here is a look at drug overdose rates.

China: China consumes more electricity per person than the EU.

Commodities: Cotton futures have been rallying.

Energy: The US rig count is holding near 500.

Equities: Here is a look at US valuations for the S&P 500, equal-weight, mid-cap, and small-cap indices, relative to their 20-year average.

Credit: High-yield bonds have been outperforming the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis.

Food for Thought: Trust in higher education:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: In the housing market, asking and sale prices are at record highs for this time of the year.

China: Stocks jumped after China’s sovereign fund promised to buy more equity ETFs. Beijing’s stock market bailout is in full swing.

The United Kingdom: London’s IPO activity has weakened over the past two years as more British companies decided to list in New York or elsewhere in Europe.

Equities:  In a historical context, the current bull market has shown relatively modest strength.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw large inflows last week led by newly listed US spot-BTC products.

Credit: A declining number of banks are imposing stricter standards on business loans, yet demand continues to be weak.

Commodities: Physical gold deliveries have trended lower in recent years, possibly because investors and governments have chosen to hoard gold as geopolitical risks increased.

Food for Thought: Expanded seabed claims:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The January jobs figure was almost twice the expected, challenging the narrative of a decelerating labor market.

Wage growth unexpectedly accelerated, further spooking the markets.

Equities: Global market breadth is holding up.

S&P 500 breadth and momentum are in the top quartile historically.

Global Developments: January returns tend to set the tone for the remainder of the year.

Commodities: The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is starting to outperform the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD).

Credit: Tighter lending standards point to further declines in commercial real estate prices.

Food for Thought: Box office tickets sold:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed improvement in January, signaling a possible conclusion to the nation’s manufacturing slump.

The United Kingdom: Inflation expectations continue to ease.

China: Flows into China-focused equity funds have surged in recent weeks.

Commodities: Cocoa prices continue to hit muli-decade highs.

Energy: Brent crude is back below $80/bbl.

Equities: Generally, the S&P 500 has a negative correlation with the Goldman US Financial Conditions Index.

Food for Thought: The middle class vs. the top 1%.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Challenges facing New York Community Bancorp have reignited worries about the stability of smaller regional banks.

Credit: In addition to worries about office debt exposure at US small/regional banks, investors see potential issues with underwater bond portfolios.

Europe: Based on current earnings yields, European stocks are very attractive relative to the US.

Commodities: Gold demand growth in the OTC market was very strong last year.

China: Beijing is taking measures to tackle the risks in China’s rural banking sector, characterized by high nonperforming loan ratios.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin gave up most of its early-January gains, while Bitcoin Cash (BCH) lagged behind major cryptos.

Food for Thought: Digital services exports:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: December saw another increase in job openings, surpassing expectations and underscoring the labor market’s ongoing resilience.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals were softer than expected last month.

Europe: Sweden’s economic sentiment (business and consumer) jumped this month.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s manufacturing output continues to trend higher.

Equities: The US market remains highly concentrated.

Credit: Loans held by multiple BDCs may not be marked at the same level.

Food for Thought: The rise of autocracies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Equities: What happens to stock prices after the yield curve “un-inverts”?

The United States: Consumers continue to save less than they did prior to the pandemic (relative to their disposable incomes). The rate has been trending lower since last spring.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw significant outflows last week, mostly driven by incumbent bitcoin ETF issuer Grayscale.

Rates: The average real Fed funds rate at the first rate cut is 3% (median 2.8%). In this cycle, the real rate could exceed the historical average if inflation continues to decline.

The Eurozone: Falling inflation and soft economic activity point to ECB rate cuts, which could arrive sooner than the market expects.

Global Developments: The recent rise in global supply chain bottlenecks could slow the decline in inflation.

Food for Thought: The US federal budget:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The December core PCE inflation measure was in line with forecasts. The year-over-year indicator dipped below 3% (2nd panel below).

China: The money supply is growing at roughly twice the rate of nominal GDP.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance

Energy: Crude oil backwardation strengthened amid tensions in the Middle East.

Equities: Here is a look at last week’s performance by sector.

Food for Thought: Apple’s sales by product category:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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