Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

 

The United States: The U. Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped this month, boosted by stock market gains, firmer home prices, and a robust job market.

The United Kingdom: The December retail sales report was awful.

China: China’s currency has significantly underperformed the MSCI’s broad EM currency index.

Equities: The equal weight index has widened its underperformance.

Rates: BNP Paribas reports that hedge fund basis trades (futures versus cash Treasuries) are likely at an all-time high.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: US retail workers by industry:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Market-based probability of a March Fed rate cut continues to ease.

The Eurozone: Construction output was down sharply on a year-over-year basis in November.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high.

Energy: US crude oil stockpiles declined last week.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is at its 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Renting vs. owning:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment improved again this month.

The Eurozone: European net equity issuance plunged last year.

Equities: Market breadth started deteriorating in recent days, …

… after bond yields bottomed.

Credit:  Investment-grade bond funds have been seeing robust inflows.

Commodities: How correlated are different commodity markets to the S&P 500 and the US dollar?

Australia: Full-time employment unexpectedly tumbled last month.

Food for Thought: Streaming subscriptions:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: According to CivicScience, “consumers ended 2023 feeling increasingly optimistic about the short-term future of their overall financial health.”

The United Kingdom: Economists downgraded their forecasts for this year’s inflation rate.

China: Home prices continue to fall.

Commodities: Cocoa futures keep moving higher.

Equities: Investors have capitulated on small caps.

Food for Thought: Tech jobs are spreading out.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Chapter 11 filings may signal a downshift in US economic growth.

Following an initial spike after the payment holiday ended, student loan payments are rapidly trending lower.

China: Household credit has been contracting, …

…. while household deposits continue to rise.

Equities: Lagging stocks in the S&P 500 typically post their best performance around the end of the year.

The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 2% down day in almost a year (225 trading sessions).

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw a near-record spike in inflows last week.

Food for Thought: US household size over time:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Financial conditions have eased sharply in recent weeks.

The United Kingdom: The slowdown in real GDP growth has been driven by sectors with high-interest rate sensitivity.

Emerging Markets: BofA’s private clients like EM bonds.

Commodities: Volatility in gold futures remains historically low, which typically does not indicate the end of an uptrend.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment indicator shows investors becoming more cautious.

Credit: Financial sector spreads have been tightening.

Food for Thought: Views on Martin Luther King’s impact on the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The market reaction to the CPI report was muted. Treasury yields declined.

China: The PPI remains well below last year’s levels.

Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes surged for US spot-bitcoin ETFs on Thursday.

Commodities: The selloff in iron ore has accelerated.

Energy: Here is a look at wind and solar contributions to the global power mix.

Equities: Bullish positioning tends to cap the upside for stocks.

Food for Thought: New England’s winning percentage under Bill Belichick:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Wage growth will likely slow from here, according to Oxford Economics.

Cryptocurrency: The SEC finally approved US spot-bitcoin ETFs. There was a spike in BTC buying activity on Binance Wednesday surrounding the approval.

Equities: Rolling 12-month forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 hit a record high.

The Eurozone: Some of the most indebted Eurozone states have significantly reduced their debt ratios.

Emerging Markets: Several EM trade balances have improved relative to the past six months, which could be a positive for local currencies.

Energy: Last week saw another large increase in US refined product inventories.

Food for Thought: Legalization of cannabis in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Personal bankruptcy filings remain relatively low.

The Eurozone: Italian equities have been outperforming the S&P 500.

Commodities: The correction in orange juice prices continues.

Energy: US natural gas futures have been rebounding, but elevated inventories will be a headwind for prices.

Equities: The S&P 500 could benefit when the Fed ends its balance sheet shrinkage, especially amid rate cuts.

Credit: US office vacancy rates hit a record high

Rates: How do Treasury yields change ahead of the Fed’s first rate cut?

Food for Thought: Amazon deforestation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: US consumer credit rose sharply in November, exceeding $5 trillion for the first time.

The Eurozone: Germany industrial production continues to tumble (six consecutive declines in a row).

Equities: The scale of downward earnings revisions for 2024 has been notably less severe compared to the usual trend.

Credit: Banks can borrow from the Fed’s term funding program (BTFP) for less than what the Fed pays on their reserves.

Emerging Markets: Here is a look at this year’s elections across EM economies.

Commodities: Gold and silver have diverged sharply in recent weeks.

Energy: Crude oil futures softened on Monday, influenced by Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce prices for their Asian customers.

Food for Thought: Theft rates:

Edited by William Villacis

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