Equities: What happens to stock prices after the yield curve “un-inverts”?
The United States: Consumers continue to save less than they did prior to the pandemic (relative to their disposable incomes). The rate has been trending lower since last spring.
Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw significant outflows last week, mostly driven by incumbent bitcoin ETF issuer Grayscale.
Rates: The average real Fed funds rate at the first rate cut is 3% (median 2.8%). In this cycle, the real rate could exceed the historical average if inflation continues to decline.
The Eurozone: Falling inflation and soft economic activity point to ECB rate cuts, which could arrive sooner than the market expects.
Global Developments: The recent rise in global supply chain bottlenecks could slow the decline in inflation.
Food for Thought: The US federal budget:
Edited by William Villacis
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