The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2024



Equities: What happens to stock prices after the yield curve “un-inverts”?

Source: Goldman Sachs; @dailychartbook


The United States: Consumers continue to save less than they did prior to the pandemic (relative to their disposable incomes). The rate has been trending lower since last spring.

Source: The Daily Shot


Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw significant outflows last week, mostly driven by incumbent bitcoin ETF issuer Grayscale.

Source: CoinShares  Read full article
Source: CoinShares  Read full article


Rates: The average real Fed funds rate at the first rate cut is 3% (median 2.8%). In this cycle, the real rate could exceed the historical average if inflation continues to decline.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


The Eurozone: Falling inflation and soft economic activity point to ECB rate cuts, which could arrive sooner than the market expects.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: Reuters  Read full article


Global Developments: The recent rise in global supply chain bottlenecks could slow the decline in inflation.

Source: Gavekal Research


Food for Thought: The US federal budget:

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Edited by William Villacis

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