Greetings, United States: One-year consumer inflation expectations continue to surge, but the three-year indicator seems to have peaked. Households expect to boost their spending substantially next year. United Kingdom: The odds of a BoE rate hike this year have collapsed below 20% amid omicron jitters. In contrast, the Fed is becoming …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 14th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Traders were concerned about another upside inflation surprise, but the November CPI report was roughly in line with expectations. That’s why stocks and bonds rallied despite a multi-decade high CPI print. Here’s the breakdown of goods vs. services: China: The renminbi has diverged from equity prices. Emerging Markets: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 13th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The 2-year Treasury yield climbed above 0.7% as traders bet on a more hawkish Fed policy. The market is now nearly certain that we will see three rate hikes next year. Eurozone: COVID cases appear to have peaked in Germany, … … but the number of patients in intensive care …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: We have some updates on supply-chain challenges. Here’s the Port of LA container ships’ waiting time: Searches for items related to supply chain disruptions on Google: United Kingdom: Natural gas prices are surging again. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank announced another aggressive rate hike and indicated there is at …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: It appears that the debt ceiling showdown has been averted for now. China: China’s government bonds have outperformed EM and US debt. Energy: Investment in hydrogen production has exploded. Equities: Buybacks have been a key component of US large-cap returns. Credit: The LIBOR deadline generated a surge …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The real fed funds rate is at extremes no matter which index is used to measure inflation. It points to extraordinary levels of monetary accommodation. Eurozone: Here are the latest French presidential election polls. Japan: Defense spending is surging. China: Despite all the bluster about staying the course …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Services ISM PMI hit another record high pointing to robust service-sector activity in Q4. United Kingdom: The market-based probability of a rate hike this year dropped to 25%. Related to the above, the pound hit the lowest level in a year vs. USD. China: Shares of tech firms …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: These rapid improvements in the labor market are allowing the Fed to accelerate QE taper. Eurozone: Suppliers to Germany’s automotive industry are gloomy. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s domestic demand is highly sensitive to policy rate changes. China: Beijing gave leveraged developers some breathing room, but the credit crisis in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Funds have been dumping the most expensive tech shares.. Momentum stocks continue to underperform. Rates: Speculative accounts are betting on further flattening in the 10yr – 30yr part of the curve. Cryptocurrency: Open interest in bitcoin’s futures market remains high despite last week’s sell-off. United States: The ADP employment …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and surprising the markets. United Kingdom: Consumer activity is already impacted by the omicron news. Europe: Demand for put options jumped in recent days. Implied volatility climbed. China: The Markit report did, however, show moderation in price …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2021”
