Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index deteriorated further, driven by inflation concerns. One should be cautious with these results because the U. Michigan survey has diverged sharply from the Conference Board’s indicator. Eurozone: Germany’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Jobless claims are approaching pre-COVID levels. Most of the “labor slack” is gone (2 charts). China: Coal futures prices continue to fall as Beijing forces out “speculators.” Equities: The share of companies beating earnings and sales estimates has moderated in the Q3 reporting season. Credit: Inflows into MBS …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The CPI report was a shocker, with last month’s inflation rising much faster than markets expected. On a year-over-year basis, CPI gains were at multi-decade highs. Here are the CPI changes in terms of standard deviations. Eurozone: EUR/USD dropped in response to the US CPI report. China: Foreign investors …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Will rapid wage growth put downward pressure on corporate margins? Below is a comment from Pavilion Global Markets. Eurozone: Supply shortages are at extreme levels across most sectors. Asia-Pacific: Here are the reasons for downgrades and upgrades of APAC corporate debt (according to Fitch). Cryptocurrency: Coinbase sales surprised …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Nomura expects an uptick in the October CPI report, boosted by shelter and vehicle prices. Oxford Economics expects CPI to moderate in the second half of next year, especially as energy supply comes back online. But the CPI peak is yet to come. United Kingdom: The 30yr gilt yield is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The payrolls report surprised to the upside, with over 600k private-sector jobs created in October. Moreover, there was a 235k upward revision to earlier data. Here is the breakdown by sector. Eurozone: At this point, there is no Russian natural gas flowing to Germany via Poland. By the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United Kingdom: Despite a surge in inflation this year, major central banks are not as eager to hike rates as the markets feared. In recent days, that has been the lesson from the ECB, the Fed, the RBA, and now the BoE. The UK’s central bank surprised the markets by holding rates unchanged. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Federal Reserve will start tapering securities purchases this month. The initial reductions will be $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in MBS per month, targeting completion for next June. The central bank left itself the option to adjust the pace of tapering. The central bank still sees inflation as …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 4th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The range of expectations for October is the tightest since the start of the pandemic. United Kingdom: Both Barclays and the BoE forecast inflation to surpass the 4% upper-bound set by the central bank by the end of the year … …which could signal the beginning of rate hikes. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was roughly in line with expectations, indicating brisk factory activity in October. China: Rating agencies continue to clobber developers’ debt. Emerging Markets: EM stocks continue to underperform relative to the S&P 500. Energy: Fitch expects a wave of refinery closures over the next few …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2021”
