Greetings, The United States: First, earnings reports from Walmart and Target spooked investors on Wednesday, fueling fresh concerns about collapsing discretionary spending and impending recession. The stock market plunged. The Eurozone: Eurozone YoY Core CPI reached 3.5% in April. This comes as the ECB plans to continue QE until July, when the market …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Starting off, real retail sales are holding above the pre-COVID trend. China: Foreign ownership of China’s government bonds declined again. The government will now stop reporting bond trades by foreigners. Emerging Markets: Indonesia’s trade surplus hit a record high due to commodity exports. Equities: Next, let’s look at …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the NY Fed’s manufacturing index (the first regional report of the month) surprised to the downside. The Eurozone: Fund managers haven’t been this bearish on the Eurozone in over a decade. China: The PBoC is continuing its “stealth” rate cut. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin’s skew is elevated, indicating stronger demand …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2022
Greetings, United States: University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to the lowest level since 2011. Europe: Next, let’s take a look at who is using internet banking in Europe. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s forward returns following a 55%+ drawdown tend to be flat or negative over the following six months. Commodities: Wheat futures surged …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 13th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: To begin, over half of S&P 500 stocks are in a bear market (down 20% or more from their 52-week highs). The market expects slower economic growth/recession to cut both revenues and margins, pushing PE ratios sharply lower. The United States: The April PPI print was roughly in line with …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the CPI report surprised to the upside. Inflation continues to run hot. Equities: Stock market pain continued after a worse-than-expected CPI report. We are 2% away from the S&P 500 going into bear-market land. The Eurozone: ECB officials have signaled that an above-zero rate in 2022 is reasonable. This chart shows …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The NFIB small business sentiment index held steady last month at the lowest level since early 2020. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is roughly 53% below its all-time high near $69K reached in November of last year. Commodities: Here’s a look at China’s dominance in processing key minerals. Energy: Uranium production has …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 10th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: To begin, the current quarter’s underperformance of growth vs. value stocks is the worst since the dot-com bubble. This is illustrated in the current drawdown in the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indices, which is approaching the 2020 level. Credit: In credit markets, the current selloff doesn’t discriminate, unlike the COVID …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Consumer credit surged in March, as Americans credit card usage has accelerated. As a result, real disposable income is taking a toll. Europe: Germany’s trade deficit with Russia hit a new record. 2022 earnings estimates for European companies are outpacing other markets. Emerging Markets: The Indian rupee hit a …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Sentiment among higher-earning Americans tumbled in recent weeks but is holding steady among those making under $50k. This trend does not bode well for consumer spending. United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates again but struck a cautious tone. The central bank sees stagflation setting in. Emerging Markets: Turkey’s CPI hit …
