Greetings, The United States: To begin, US job openings remained remarkably strong in April, indicating persistent tightness in the labor market. Economists are skeptical about manufacturing strength persisting in the months ahead despite improvement in May. The spread between new orders and inventories points to weakness in the ISM PMI later this year. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The gap between home prices and wages continues to widen. This was sustainable when mortgage rates dipped below 3%, but not now. In addition, the University of Michigan’s index of buying conditions for houses, which is based on consumer sentiment, has collapsed. Emerging Markets: South Africa’s unemployment appears to …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 31st, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, consumers dipped into their savings, which dropped to the lowest level since 2008 as a percentage of disposable income. The Eurozone: Germany’s May CPI report surprised to the upside, giving the ECB hawks more ammunition to push for a 50bps hike in July. Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies have been rebounding. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 27th, 2022
Greetings, United States: To start, the pace of moderation in core inflation will depend on corporate margins. China: China announced an easing of lending requirements for homebuyers. Due to a sharp rise in the banks’ NPL ratios with developer loans, however, this may not translate into an effective stimulus for the Chinese economy. …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 26th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the FOMC minutes did not suggest a 75 bps hike in the months ahead. The market has even started pricing in a very small probability that we may not even get the full 50 bps hikes over the next two months if economic growth hits a wall. Durable goods …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 25th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Supply bottlenecks are disappearing, which means suppliers will have a tough time raising or even maintaining prices. Europe: The divergence between business and consumer confidence in the Czech Republic has reached extreme levels. Japan: Japan’s service firms face severe cost pressures and are starting to pass those on to …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 24th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: To begin, stocks jumped on Monday, boosted by banks. The United States: Looking at the supply chain, congestion at West Coast ports has been easing. The Eurozone: Germany’s business sentiment improved this month, although the expectations index was roughly flat. China: The spread between PPI and CPI suggests that manufacturers …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 23rd, 2022
Greetings, Equities: The pandemic-era bull market came very close to officially ending on Friday. The earnings report from Deere spooked investors. Commodities: Precious metals ETF flows have turned positive. Also, lumber tumbled last week amid signs of weakness in the US housing market. Cryptocurrency: China’s bitcoin miners are back online despite the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Factory activity across the country has been surprising to the downside. Europe: In the United Kingdom, there are now more job vacancies than unemployed workers. China: The central bank cut the five-year rate to support the struggling housing sector. Equities: Fund managers haven’t been this underweight tech since 2006. Also, this …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 19th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, earnings reports from Walmart and Target spooked investors on Wednesday, fueling fresh concerns about collapsing discretionary spending and impending recession. The stock market plunged. The Eurozone: Eurozone YoY Core CPI reached 3.5% in April. This comes as the ECB plans to continue QE until July, when the market …
