Greetings, Equities: To begin, the current quarter’s underperformance of growth vs. value stocks is the worst since the dot-com bubble. This is illustrated in the current drawdown in the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indices, which is approaching the 2020 level. Credit: In credit markets, the current selloff doesn’t discriminate, unlike the COVID …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Consumer credit surged in March, as Americans credit card usage has accelerated. As a result, real disposable income is taking a toll. Europe: Germany’s trade deficit with Russia hit a new record. 2022 earnings estimates for European companies are outpacing other markets. Emerging Markets: The Indian rupee hit a …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2022
Greetings, United States: Sentiment among higher-earning Americans tumbled in recent weeks but is holding steady among those making under $50k. This trend does not bode well for consumer spending. United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates again but struck a cautious tone. The central bank sees stagflation setting in. Emerging Markets: Turkey’s CPI hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 50bps, as expected. Here is how real rates (TIPS yield) reacted to Powell’s comment of a 75bp increase being off the table for now. Equities: In equity markets, the P/E ratio compression has been severe in 2022 (see chart). Energy: As …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 4th, 2022
Greetings, United States: The March job openings report topped forecasts as the number of vacancies hit a record high. Emerging Markets: Which countries’ economies are most sensitive to China? Energy: Let’s take a look at which energy sources provide the best return on investment. Equities: Only 10% of global equity markets are trading below …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 3rd, 2022
Greetings, United States: First, let’s look at the April ISM Manufacturing PMI, which surprised to the downside. International container freight rates are off the highs, but we are unlikely to ever see pre-COVID levels again. Eurozone: Here is the PMI output index at the Eurozone level (growth has stalled). Equities: In …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 2nd, 2022
Greetings, Equities: Friday marked a bad ending to a challenging month in the market. The Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq Composite saw the worst month since the financial crisis. Rates: The 2-year Treasury yield keeps climbing as more aggressive Fed rate hikes get priced in. Commodities: Let’s take a look at last …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 29th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Let’s start by looking at the US, where GDP unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter. In the labor market, jobless claims are holding near multi-decade lows. The Eurozone: Next, Germany’s consumer inflation hit 7.8% as the country considers a Russian oil embargo. China: Tech stocks are surging …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 28th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, the US trade deficit in goods hit a new record as imports sharply outpace exports. This result didn’t bode well for the GDP report today. Looking towards the housing market, the current loan-to-value ratio is relatively low, unlike during the subprime housing crisis. Japan: The BoJ …
The Daily Shot Brief – April 27th, 2022
Greetings, Equities: Stocks tumbled on Tuesday amid concerns about slowing economic growth pressuring earnings. The market got an additional jolt from Alphabet’s weaker-than-expected results after the close Energy: Russia is weaponizing natural gas, causing natural gas futures to jump. Rates: Market jitters have created tremendous demand for Treasury bills. Asia: South Korea’s high …
