The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims continue to signal tightness in the labor market.

Continuing claims are now running slightly above last year’s levels.

The Eurozone: As with other inflation reports, Italy’s CPI topped expectations.

Rates: Risks are tilted to the upside for Treasury term premium amid concerns about sticky inflation.

Energy: Oil market implied volatility continues to trend lower.

Emerging Markets: Vehicle sales in South Africa are above last year’s levels.

Food for Thought: The Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2035.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Input prices for manufacturers started rising again last month, further spooking bond markets.

The Eurozone:  Upside surprises in recent CPI reports from Germany, France, Spain, and Belgium point to a reacceleration in inflation at the Eurozone level.

Credit: Mutual fund inflows into US investment-grade credit increased this year, outpacing ETF flows.

Energy: US gross crude oil exports are hitting record highs.

Emerging Markets: Market pricing of sovereign credit risk is meaningfully higher since 2010 for countries such as Turkey, Argentina, and South Africa.

Global Developments: Here is a look at February and year-to-date performance across major assets. The risk-on rally ran out of steam last month.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are average US tax refunds by year:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The labor differential (“jobs plentiful” – “jobs hard to get”) once again points to a tight labor market.

Next, The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index showed severe deterioration in the region’s business activity.

Europe: The contraction in Poland’s factory activity is slowing.

The United Kingdom: Brexit uncertainty has been less of a concern for businesses.

China: The official manufacturing PMI showed a massive factory activity surge in February.

Equities: Stocks still look overvalued. Here is the distribution of P/E ratios for the S&P 500.

Commodities: Here is the February performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: Gender pay and labor force participation gaps globally:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The median new home price is now down on a year-over-year basis.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to remove liquidity from the financial system.

Japan: The BoJ has been helping banks finance JGB purchases. Still, the 10-year yield is holding at the 50bp cap.

China:  Mobility indicators have surged.

Equities: Companies known for buying back their shares have been outperforming.

Commodities: The cobalt bubble has popped.

Food for Thought: How accurate is AI in answering medical questions?

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending was strong in January.

The FOMC is primarily focused on the non-housing core services PCE inflation, which registered its biggest monthly increase in over a year.

The Eurozone: Germany’s revised Q4 GDP report was ugly.

Equities: Stocks increasingly look unattractive relative to fixed-income products.

Credit: US and European high-yield fund flows have diverged.

Energy: US natural gas futures are rebounding boosted by expectations of a cold March.

Commodities: Funds have been boosting their long bets on gold futures.

Food for Thought: Here is the remote work share of postings on Indeed:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Final sales to private domestic purchasers, the “core” GDP was almost flat last quarter.

Equities: Hedge funds are shorting expensive/unprofitable tech shares again.

The United Kingdom: Consumer confidence is rebounding from the lows.

Energy: US gasoline demand is rebounding.

Rates: The US inflation curve is now deeply inverted as near-term inflation expectations surge.

Japan: The core CPI hit a multi-decade high.

Food for Thought: Military spending in select countries:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Market jitters around US debt default risks persist as the x-date approaches. The Treasury is expected to run out of emergency funds in late summer. Here is the US one-year sovereign CDS spread.

Equities: Fund flows into financials are recovering after massive withdrawals last year. Energy-sector funds are seeing outflows.

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure this week amid demand concerns.

Credit: ETF investors have been dumping HY bonds and moving into cash.

Alternatives: VC fundraising hit a nine-year low.

Asia – Pacific: Economists expect the BoJ to tighten policy this year under new leadership.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are Twitter’s advertising revenue losses:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The pace of contraction is moderating in the manufacturing sector.

The United Kingdom: The February PMI report surprised to the upside.

The Eurozone: Price pressures are easing.

Equities: The S&P 500 has undercut its historical price path during Fed tightening cycles.

Credit: Credit Suisse shares hit a new low.

Global Developments: The World Economics global SMI report showed business activity accelerating this month as China reopened.

Food for Thought: Working US men and women with advanced degrees:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s leading index declined again in January. Here are last month’s drivers.

The market-implied terminal rate is up some 40 bps this month.

The Eurozone: Consumer confidence continues to rebound.

China: Road congestion surged as the country reopened.

Equities: There is a lot of uncertainty about the stock market trajectory this year.

Credit: Global high-yield bond spreads are too tight.

Commodities: Here is last week’s performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is US adult population growth by age:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The January report on producer prices topped expectations in both the headline and core PPI. Upstream price pressures persist.

Equities: After declining further, profit margins are expected to rebound later this year and into 2024.

China: After months of declines, new home prices were flat in January.

Commodities: Lithium prices have been rolling over.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned to “greed” territory.

Food for Thought: Countries with the highest concentration of earthquakes:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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