Greetings, United States: The December payrolls increase surprised to the downside again. At the same time, the unemployment rate dipped below 4% for the first time in this cycle. The divergence points to further tightening in the labor market. Underemployment (U-6) is nearly back to pre-COVID levels. Europe: Here …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 10th, 2022”
Greetings, Asia-Pacific: Omicron is pressuring Australia’s consumer spending. China: Offshore and onshore defaults have continued to climb with higher pressure for both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs). Additionally, foreign investors pulled capital out of mainland shares. Cryptocurrency: Crypto crime is increasing, mostly via stolen funds in the …
Greetings, United States: The FOMC minutes revealed an even more hawkish Federal Reserve than the markets were expecting. • Inflation concerns: Participants remarked that inflation readings had been higher and were more persistent and widespread than previously anticipated. Some participants noted that trimmed mean measures of inflation had reached decade-high levels and that the …
Greetings, United States: Voluntary separations reached a new record, with 4.5 million Americans quitting their jobs in November. Here is the breakdown of quit rates by sector. Here is why many Americans are staying out of the labor force. Eurozone: Germany lags behind the US in terms of venture …
Greetings, United States: The distribution of SNAP benefits spiked since the start of the pandemic (exceeding food inflation) after the government extended eligibility. China: The service sector weakened over the past quarter as China maintains its “zero-COVID” policy. Cryptocurrency: The number of transactions on Bitcoin’s blockchain is starting to decline, which suggests …
Greetings, United States: The trade deficit in goods hit a new record in November, … … as imports surged. This is why supply chain bottlenecks have been so extreme. Japan: The labor market may take a while to return to pre-COVID levels. Commodities: This chart shows the 2021 performance …
Greetings, Administrative Update: The next Daily Shot will be out on Monday, January 3rd. United States: Savings as a share of disposable income are now at the low end of the pre-COVID range. But cumulative excess savings remain massive. Europe: Natural gas prices tumbled as US LNG cargoes are redirected from Asia …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 24th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Capital Economics does not see the Fed slowing rate hikes in 2023. This forecast diverges from market expectations. United Kingdom: UK hospitalization data suggest that omicron may be less dangerous than previous COVID variants. China: China has captured the vast majority of the post-pandemic increase in global trade. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 23rd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published the week of December 27th. Energy: The European energy crisis continues to worsen as temperatures fall and Russia shuts off flows of natural gas. Natural gas prices have gone vertical, jumping by over 20% in one day. Europe competes with …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published the week of December 27th. United States: The Conference Board’s leading index continues to point to robust economic activity ahead. Falling unemployment claims have been the key driver of this indicator over the past couple of months. Eurozone: More euro-area firms …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 21st, 2021”
