The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Durable goods orders jumped in March, boosted by aircraft purchases.

The market continues to price in deep rate cuts over the next 18 months amid concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling. This chart shows the near term forward spread of the three-month Treasury bill.

Equities: S&P 500 futures positioning is the most bearish in over a decade.

Energy: Crude oil has reversed all of the gains from OPEC’s surprise production cut amid concerns about demand.

Europe: Riksbank hiked rates by 50 bps (as expected) and signaled a pause.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s inflation is moderating.

Asia – Pacific: Australia’s import prices unexpectedly tumbled in the first quarter.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is the US marriage rate over time:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States:The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined further this month, driven by weakening expectations (3rd panel). The index of current conditions edged higher (2nd panel).

The United Kingdom: Price pressures are easing, which should be reflected in the PPI.

Commodities: A recovery in China’s energy and electricity consumption is needed to support a rise in copper prices.

Equities: The lull in volatility ended on Tuesday as banking concerns resurfaced.

Credit: Interest margin:

Food for Thought: Lastly, the union premium:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The 1-year US sovereign credit default swap spread hit another record high as investors become increasingly uneasy with the debt ceiling impasse.

Equities: It will be a busy few days for earnings reports.

Here are sector month-to-date revisions in projected earnings.

Credit: US money supply is contracting but remains elevated in real terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Asia – Pacific South Korea’s Q1 GDP growth was higher than expected.

Global Developments: Sovereign bond yields have declined across G10 nations, led by Treasuries. Weaker interest rate differentials could weigh on the dollar.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin halvings tend to boost prices.

Food for Thought: Lastly, AI has been outperforming human benchmarks:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The PMI Manufacturing index from S&P Global is back above 50, signaling a rebound in US manufacturing. Will we also see a bounce in the ISM Manufacturing PMI this month?

The Eurozone: The composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is in growth territory, driven by services.

Equities: VVIX (implied volatility index of VIX options) has risen even as VIX declines. It indicates increased demand for VIX call options.

A second straight quarter of year-over-year profit declines is not necessarily a headwind for stock prices.

Rates: Speculative investors’ net-short positioning in interest rate futures is still near extreme levels.

Emerging Markets: Economists continue to boost Chile’s GDP forecast, but a 2023 recession remains in the cards.

Commodities: Here is last week’s performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: Here are year-on-year changes in visits to retail and services establishments:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators looks increasingly recessionary.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales declined in March.

Credit: Banks have also borrowed heavily from FHLBs.

Equities: S&P 500 profit margins will see further declines toward average levels.

Energy: US jet fuel inventories have rebounded.

Cryptocurrency: The drop in ETH option skews suggests traders were unwinding their downside hedges ahead of the Ethereum network upgrade.

Food for Thought: Homeless public school students:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications hit a multi-year low last week.

Fed officials want to raise rates in May as financial conditions ease.

The United Kingdom: Surprises in both inflation and wage growth have raised market expectations for the May BoE rate hike to above 25 bps.

Credit: There are a lot of fallen angels this year.

Emerging Markets: Uruguay’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on Wednesday. This was the first rate cut in Latin America since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Energy: Gasoline inventories unexpectedly jumped as demand slows.

Commodities: Platinum has been rallying, with PPLT (physical platinum ETF) hitting resistance.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are primary personal banking institutions:

Edited by William Villacis

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EquitiesGreetings,

The United States: Fewer companies are boosting wages.

The United Kingdom: The unemployment rate ticked higher in the three months ending in February.

The Eurozone: Real wage growth has been running below that of the US.

Commodities: Coffee futures are surging.

Equities: Demand for downside protection has been increasing as the market grinds higher.

Food for Thought: Podcast categories with the longest surviving episodes:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index, the first regional factory report of the month, was remarkably strong.

Rents are down on a year-over-year basis for the first time since the COVID shock, according to Redfin.

Equities: During recent recessions, the earnings drawdown of US growth stocks has been less severe than value stocks.

China: China’s Q1 GDP growth was slightly higher than expected, boosted by a surge in consumption.

Asia – Pacific: Investors see a sharp divergence between Asian and global economic growth.

Commodities: CME live cattle futures hit a record high due to a tighter cash market.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is R&D spending by the US vs. China:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the March changes by sector.

The United Kingdom: What percentage of the population lives in poor-quality housing?

The Eurozone: Germany’s wholesale price inflation is crashing.

Equities: Traders jumped into shares of large banks on Friday while dumping regional/small banks.

Commodities: Funds have been boosting their bets against US wheat futures amid ample global supplies.

Rates: Rates market implied vol has closed most of the gap with equities.

Food for Thought: Homeless rates across the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The trade services PPI saw another sharp decline, pointing to weaker profit margins.

Equities: This chart shows corporate guidance announcement trends in select sectors.

Energy: Here is each country’s production relative to quota.

The United Kingdom: The monthly GDP estimate was flat in February (and has been roughly flat for some time).

Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira keeps drifting lower.

Credit: The Fed’s emergency financing for banks declined again in recent days.

Food for Thought: Bank failures in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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