The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Banks continue to tighten lending standards. Here is the percentage of lenders tightening standards on loans to small companies.

Canada: Canada’s banking sector has not experienced the declines in bank deposits seen in the US.

China: Bank shares have been rallying.

Credit: Credit tightening is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.

Equities: How do stocks perform after the Fed’s last hike?

Europe: The Norwegian krone bounced from the lows after the rate hike. Will the rebound be sustained?

Asia – Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged last month.

Food for Thought: Here are notable trends in US college enrollment rates:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Prime-age labor force participation has been surging, which in theory, should slow wage growth.

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly tumbled in March, raising recession concerns.

Asia-Pacific: AUD/USD has not kept up with the rise in industrial metal prices.

Credit: Bank deposits declined further going into April month-end.

Foreign banks’ US dollar deposits saw the largest monthly decline since 2011.

Equities: Hedge fund clients haven’t been this bearish on stocks in at least a decade.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s equities have been under pressure ahead of the elections.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top prescription drugs in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Wage growth is still too high to support a sustained drop in inflation.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals topped expectations.

The Eurozone: What are the drivers of weakening loan demand?

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with bitcoin roughly flat and XRP underperforming select crypto peers.

Commodities: Speculators increased their net-long gold positions as the precious metal outperforms the S&P 500.

Energy: The remarkable decline in European natural gas prices continues.

Food for Thought: UPS package volume:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market is anticipating approximately 180 bps of rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.

Companies increasingly mention weak demand on earnings calls.

The Eurozone: The ECB faces the dilemma of credit conditions tightening while core inflation remains well above target.

Emerging Markets: ZAR/USD (South African rand) experienced a deep drawdown despite its decent real carry versus the dollar.

Rates: The Treasury curve is steepening at the long end (bull steepener).

Commodities: Gold jumped on Wednesday, nearing the high reached in 2020, as the Fed signaled a pause and the US dollar moved lower. Persistent turbulence in the US baking sector and the debt ceiling concerns are also driving prices higher.

Energy: Crude oil has been under pressure amid demand concerns.

Food for Thought: Here are the months it took apps to reach 100 million users:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Voluntary resignations slowed further while layoffs increased.

The United Kingdom: Home prices unexpectedly jumped in April.

Europe: Sweden’s manufacturing sector continues to contract.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw two consecutive weeks of outflows.

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is trending lower.

Equities: The equal-weight S&P 500 index continues to underperform.

Food for Thought: Manufacturing labor shortages:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: US manufacturing costs are rising again.

The federal government missed out on locking in low long-term rates in recent years, causing interest payments to surge.

Equities: Equity implied volatility is too low, given elevated credit spreads.

Rates: The Treasury bill curve remains distorted amid the debt ceiling “game of chicken.”

The Eurozone: Italian wage growth hit a multi-year high.

Asia-Pacific: Investors’ inflation expectations for Asia hit an eight-year low, according to a survey by BofA.

Commodities: New York sugar futures fell from an 11-year high on Monday.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are AI-related publications in the US and China:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Personal saving as a share of disposable income is recovering.

The Eurozone: The Eurozone avoided a recession in Q1, but growth was below forecasts.

Japan: Investment has been slowing.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s exports were 14% below last year’s levels in April.

Cryptocurrency: This chart shows El Salvador’s crypto remittances (funds denominated in crypto sent from abroad).

Equities: Earnings projections remain fairly optimistic.

Food for Thought: Marriage rates in advanced economies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The first-quarter GDP report fell short of expectations, as inventory reductions contributed to a slowdown in economic growth.

The United Kingdom: How quickly will “excess” household deposits be depleted?

The Eurozone: Spain’s retail sales have been surging.

Commodities: Steel prices continue to sink in China.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s services output improved in February.

Equities: Small caps are struggling relative to the Nasdaq 100, dragged lower by bank shares.

Food for Thought: Concerns about TikTok:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Durable goods orders jumped in March, boosted by aircraft purchases.

The market continues to price in deep rate cuts over the next 18 months amid concerns about the banking sector and the debt ceiling. This chart shows the near term forward spread of the three-month Treasury bill.

Equities: S&P 500 futures positioning is the most bearish in over a decade.

Energy: Crude oil has reversed all of the gains from OPEC’s surprise production cut amid concerns about demand.

Europe: Riksbank hiked rates by 50 bps (as expected) and signaled a pause.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s inflation is moderating.

Asia – Pacific: Australia’s import prices unexpectedly tumbled in the first quarter.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is the US marriage rate over time:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States:The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index declined further this month, driven by weakening expectations (3rd panel). The index of current conditions edged higher (2nd panel).

The United Kingdom: Price pressures are easing, which should be reflected in the PPI.

Commodities: A recovery in China’s energy and electricity consumption is needed to support a rise in copper prices.

Equities: The lull in volatility ended on Tuesday as banking concerns resurfaced.

Credit: Interest margin:

Food for Thought: Lastly, the union premium:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief