The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2017

Greetings,   The United States: There is still a great deal of speculation about who will be Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair. John Taylor’s odds have risen significantly in the betting markets. This recent interview with John Taylor (just takes a few minutes) suggests that he will advocate for a higher natural rate. And that would …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2017

Greetings,   The United States: US consumers still have not recovered from the 2008 economic shock. Discretionary service spending is improving much slower than during the previous cycles.   The Eurozone: Analysts continue to suggest that the euro is overvalued.   China: China’s rising budget deficit (including state-owned enterprises) points to increased fiscal stimulus in recent …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 16th, 2017

Greetings,   The United States: US retail sales beat consensus, but the latest monthly increase was driven by the hurricanes (damaged/flooded car replacements and higher spending on gasoline). On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth remains stable (shown here ex. gasoline spending).   Credit: US banks continue to report a rise in consumer loan delinquncies. …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 13th, 2017

Greetings, Global developments: Global earnings growth has been relatively synchronized.   The United States: The hurricanes’ impact on the US initial unemployment claims has not been as bad as some had feared.   Europe: The Eurozone industrial production continues to improve, exceeding economists’ forecasts.   China: The 10yr government bond yield is hovering just below …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 12th, 2017

Greetings,   Credit: Puerto Rico’s general obligation debt took another leg down. Here are the updated Moody’s ratings for each state’s general obligation debt. Europe: The Catalonia jitters had generated record levels of trading in Spanish government bonds. But the concerns appear to be easing now as the bond curve flattens (investors roll into longer …