Greetings, The United States: Here is the breakdown of the US labor-force participation rate decline since 2008. The “change due to behavior” includes trends such as higher college enrollment rates, etc. China: Growth in fixed-asset investment is also slowing. Here is the split between private and public activity (public fixed investment is the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the homeownership and vacancy rates by region. Rental vacancies in the western part of the US are still declining. Credit: European sub-investment-grade debt yields rose sharply from record lows. Japan: Foreigners have been buying Japanese stocks. Equity Markets: The debt ceiling is coming up again …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Most economists think that withdrawing from NAFTA will have a negative impact on economic growth. Changes to the rules of origin could be disruptive to the supply chain. The Eurozone: The European Commission boosted its forecast for the Eurozone’s economic growth. China: Here is how China’s energy mix …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: It’s a good time to be selling a house. The Eurozone: Italian nonperforming bank loan balances are headed in the right direction. China: Will Donal Trump try to address this rising goods trade surplus with the US? Equity Markets: Here are the latest fund flows for US-focused …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Some analysts see wage growth accelerating soon, as the spread between the underemployment rate (U-6) and the unemployment rate (U-3) declines further. This spread could be viewed as a measure of labor slack. Wages as a share of the GDP have been trending lower, boosting corporate margins. The Eurozone: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The US is struggling with low labor turnover, which is a significant contributor to the sluggish wage growth. And the reason for declining labor turnover is the aging corporate sector. Old US firms, many of which are heavily entrenched in their industry, increasingly dominate the economy. Nomura: – “The decline …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The ISM nonmanufacturing index beat expectations as export orders accelerated. Here is the full breakdown of the ISM report. Europe: The pound increasingly drives stock prices in the UK. Emerging Markets: The Venezuelan bolivar weakened further in the black market. One has to bring “bags” of the Venezuelan …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Economists expect a massive jump in the number of new nonfarm payrolls in October (reported later today). The report is expected to show a reversal of the September hurricane-driven decline. The Eurozone: The euro area’s factories are doing well, with the manufacturing index hitting the highest level since 2011. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 3rd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Reports from both Markit and ISM showed that US factory activity remained brisk in October. Markit’s summary (below) tells us that smaller manufacturers showed an improvement as well. Some analysts, however, point out that we still have a disconnect between “soft” and “hard” data. Here is the ISM index vs. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: The regional manufacturing surveys point to a very strong (national) ISM report on Wednesday (although lower than the September figure, which was distorted by the hurricanes). Here is a comment from Merrill Lynch on the concept of tax cuts “paying for themselves.” BofA Merrill Lynch: – “President Clinton worked with Republicans …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2017”
