Greetings, The United States: Analysts are not convinced that the US-China trade war has been averted. Most believe that “the can has been kicked down the road,” and the trade deficit with China will only continue to worsen over the next few years. Here is the forecast from Capital Economics. Also, even before the …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 21st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US economic sentiment continues to point to higher GDP growth as the soft-hard economic data divergence persists. This chart shows the share of US imports by country. Japan’s share decline started after the Plaza Accord. The Eurozone: The overall macro risk indicators for the Eurozone are still near pre-crisis levels …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: It’s worth noting that rising regional survey price indices (such as the Philly Fed’s data above), don’t necessarily translate into higher consumer inflation. Also, firmer earnings growth in the 2005-07 period did not result in higher core inflation (PCE). Equity Markets: This chart shows sector weights by market …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 20th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: CapEx at the largest US companies has picked up this quarter. However, given the sectors involved, the business investment isn’t fully reflected in capital goods orders (which have been lackluster lately). Equity Markets: How do stocks typically perform after the midterm elections? Emerging Markets: Here is BMI’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Economists continue to forecast higher inflation next year, with the core PCE index climbing above the 2% level. Morgan Stanley expects inflation increases to be driven by services that exclude housing and medical care. Equity Markets: The retail sentiment on equities has soured. Institutional investors have been moving …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 15th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Evidence for a broad-based increase in US wage growth remains elusive for now. Here is the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker for full-time employees. Nevertheless, economists remain convinced that it’s only a matter of time. Margan Stanley points out that with no slack left in the labor markets, hourly earnings …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Most economists expect the next recession to hit in 2020 or 2021, making the current expansion the longest on record. Here is an example of such a forecast, showing job losses in 2021. Equity Markets: This chart shows the S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth rate. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin enters …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Despite higher interest rates, mortgage applications for house purchase remain at multi-year highs for this time of the year. Equity Markets: The market’s response to companies beating earnings forecasts has been lackluster. Cryptocurrency: This chart shows the year-to-date relative performance of some major cryptocurrencies. Ripple (blue) is …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Given a possible slowdown globally, is the Fed becoming too confident (possibly even complacent) about the US economy? Fed officials mention the word “global” far less frequently now. The frequency of the words “concerns” and “uncertainty” hit the lowest level since 2007. Equity Markets: Investors have been rolling …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 8th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: More Americans expect to see increases in their local housing prices than at any time since 2005. Equity Markets: Retail investors further soured on stocks last month – a bullish sign. Commodities: Increases in global corn production will be driven almost entirely by rising crop yields. Credit: …
