The Daily Shot Brief – May 16th, 2018




The United States: Economists continue to forecast higher inflation next year, with the core PCE index climbing above the 2% level.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley expects inflation increases to be driven by services that exclude housing and medical care.

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Equity Markets: The retail sentiment on equities has soured.

Source: Piper Jaffray

Institutional investors have been moving into money markets.

Source: Deutsche Bank, @tracyalloway

However, Merrill Lynch’s clients have been buying stocks in recent weeks.

Source: BofAML, @tracyalloway


Emerging Markets: Despite the market rout, most EM economies are still in growth mode.

Source: BMI Research


Credit: One of the reasons for the weakness in IG is US corporations selling their holdings as they repatriate cash to the US and deploy it.

Source: BofAML, @tracyalloway


Eurozone: Will the ECB exit its QE program later in the year? Here is one scenario.

Source: @JanVonGerich; Read full article


Rates: US households are not significantly exposed to floating rates (such as home-equity loans).

Source: Morgan Stanley Research


Energy: OPEC’s cuts are offset by the non-OPEC production increases.

Source: OPEC

Here are the contributions to non-OPEC production over time.

Source: @aeberman12


Food for Thought: Sports-betting legal status by state.

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article


Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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