The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2018




The United States: Most economists expect the next recession to hit in 2020 or 2021, making the current expansion the longest on record.

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article

Here is an example of such a forecast, showing job losses in 2021.

Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting


Equity Markets: This chart shows the S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth rate.

Source: Credit Suisse


Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin enters the 200d/50d death cross.

Further reading


Credit: Household leverage appears to be correlated with the prevalence of non-cash transactions.

Source: @trevornoren; Read full article


Eurozone: Spanish households have shifted from being net savers to net borrowers for the first time since the Great Recession.

Source: @acemaxx, @PictetWM


Rates: Pressure on short-term US rates seems to be waning.

Source: Goldman Sachs, @Schuldensuehner


Energy: Here is how the supply/demand dynamics contributed to oil price changes this year.

Source: @economics; Read full article


Commodities: Recreational and medical cannabis prices are diverging.

Source: @bySamRo; Read full article


Food for Thought: “AI” and “Big Data” mentions on quarterly earnings calls.

Source: @M_McDonough


Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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