The Daily Shot Brief – May 22nd, 2018



The United States: Analysts are not convinced that the US-China trade war has been averted. Most believe that “the can has been kicked down the road,” and the trade deficit with China will only continue to worsen over the next few years. Here is the forecast from Capital Economics.

Source: @CapEconChina

Also, even before the latest trade “agreement,” US oil exports to China already hit record levels. It’s worth noting that China can quickly cut the official trade deficit with the US by buying more American crude oil and quietly reselling it into the market. Crude oil does not have a “made in the USA” stamp on it. While such a move would cut the imbalance with China, the US trade deficit with the world would not improve.

Source: @JavierBlas2, @EIAgov


The Eurozone: Investors have become nervous about European shares in general. Here is the 3-month 90/110% vol ratio (skew):

Source: Credit Suisse


Energy: Shale energy firms are still reporting negative cash flow despite higher oil prices.

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article


Equity Markets: There are still too few bearish investors.

Source: Yardeni Research


CreditCompanies have shifted their liabilities to longer maturities to reduce refinancing risks.

Source: Capital Economics


Rates: The dollar continues to diverge from the rate differentials.

Source: Capital Economics

On the other hand, the yield curve steepness differentials go the other way (the US curve is flatter).

Source: TD Securities


Food for Thought: What job would make it worth moving to a different city? And which city?

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article



Edited by Joseph Cohen

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