Greetings, The United States: The FOMC has consistently been underestimating the pace of declines in the unemployment rate during this cycle. Global Developments: How have the government debt-to-GDP ratios changed since 2006? China: The rate of new project approvals suggests increasing fiscal stimulus. The Eurozone: Has the Fench debt-to-GDP ratio peaked? …
The Daily Shot Brief – October 2nd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US labor force participation is returning to its secular trend (which is driven by aging population). Global Developments: This chart shows the recent history of implied volatility in EM currencies, EM equities, and US equities. China: Economists expect credit impulse to strengthen next year in response to the …
The Daily Shot Brief – October 1st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: US consumer income and spending trends remain robust: Global Developments: Here is the change in the world’s “excess” private debt. China: This chart shows Chinese banks’ IPO and secondary offering amounts. The Eurozone: Germany’s unemployment rate hit a new low. The second chart goes back to the …
The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Below is the Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI) heat map, which continues to show a divergence between “soft” and “hard” economic indicators. We see a similar trend in the Economic Momentum Indicator from Oxford Economics. Global Developments: Global trade growth indicators continue to deteriorate. China: Below is …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Worker strikes are on the rise. Emerging Markets: Regulated items (in which the authorities rather than the market control price changes) have been pushing inflation higher in Mexico. The market-based CPI, however, has been moving lower. The overall core CPI remains within the central bank’s target range. China: …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 24th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: A 0.25% Fed rate hike this week is now fully priced into the market. The Asia – Pacific: South Korea has been losing market share to China in automobile exports to the US. With the new tariffs against China, however, South Korea could regain some ground. China: Demand …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows how Americans view the probability of losing their job in the next five years (by education level). The Asia – Pacific: Japan’s recent stock market rally has been impressive. China: Here is an estimate of the US-China trade war’s impact on economic growth. Europe: …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Younger Americans are much more nervous about buying a home than the older generations. This divergence is a recent phenomenon. The United Kingdom: After years of declines, mortgage rates are expected to start climbing next year. China: The World Economics’ SMI points to further deterioration in China’s manufacturing …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 17th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Will the yield curve inversion boost the odds of a recession? Below is the latest survey result from the WSJ. The United Kingdom: A “hard Brexit” economic shock could devastate the UK’s property market. China: China’s P2P lending activity continues to slow. The Eurozone: Wage indicators across the Eurozone are …
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The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Relative to other countries, US housing valuations do not appear to be stretched. The United Kingdom: The nation’s housing market momentum is slowing again. China: Here is Goldman’s China current activity indicator. The Eurozone: The ECB downgraded its forecast (slightly) for the GDP growth and inflation. The central …
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