The Daily Shot Brief – October 1st, 2018



The United States: US consumer income and spending trends remain robust:

Source: The Daily Shot


Global Developments: Here is the change in the world’s “excess” private debt.

Source: Oxford Economics


China: This chart shows Chinese banks’ IPO and secondary offering amounts.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


The Eurozone: Germany’s unemployment rate hit a new low. The second chart goes back to the reunification.

Source: The Daily Shot


Equities: US stock futures are higher in response to the US-Canada NAFTA deal (see Canada section).

Source: The Daily Shot


Energy: Brent crude is trading above $83/bbl.

Source: The Daily Shot


Emerging Markets:

Let’s start with this note on the Argentina-IMF agreement.

Bloomberg: – Peso trading … was thin and volatile as market participants struggled to figure out the new regime. The currency fell 3 percent on Thursday and extended losses at the opening of Friday’s session, dropping another 2 percent to 40.5 per dollar. It’s edging toward the upper limit of the central bank’s range of 34 to 44 per dollar.

Under the IMF plan, the bank can spend $150 million buying the peso if it drifts outside that zone. Some traders were skeptical of the limit, arguing that in the event of a shock in Argentina, or a wider run on emerging markets, it won’t suffice.

Here is what happened to the Argentine peso on Friday.

Source: The Daily Shot

Will the IMF deal keep the peso within the 34-44 range? This regime limits the central bank’s flexibility, inviting the markets to take the peso for a speculative ride to 44 and beyond.

Food for Thought: Trends in healthcare spending (the US vs. other developed economies):

Source: @NickTimiraos; Read full article




Edited by Paul Menestrier

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