Greetings, The United States: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma trimmed US economic activity in September, slowing manufacturing output. However, the nation’s economy remains resilient. Here is a comment from IHS Markit. Credit: The Toys R Us filing has catapulted this year’s DIP financing to the highest level since 2009. China: Goldman expects to see inflows in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: “hard data” has been disappointing lately. This weakness, according to many economists, was to a large extent driven by Hurricane Harvey. Will the dollar continue to weaken, boosting US export competitiveness? Historical trends tell us that it’s a real possibility. And hedge funds are betting on it (second chart below). The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 22th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, the Federal Reserve will begin the long-awaited balance sheet unwind next month. But to the surprise of some economists, the central bank also appears to be on target to raise rates in December. The futures-based probability of a December rate hike jumped in response to the FOMC announcement. Below is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 21th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, US import prices have increased. Credit: Here is how Toys R Us compares with other retail bankruptcy filings. Equity Markets: This chart puts some market capitalization figures into perspective. Emerging Markets: The increasing percentage of tech stocks in emerging markets has been fueling the recent rally. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 20th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: As expected, US import prices have increased. Credit: Here is how Toys R Us compares with other retail bankruptcy filings. Equity Markets: This chart puts some market capitalization figures into perspective. Emerging Markets: The increasing percentage of tech stocks in emerging markets has been fueling the recent rally. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 19th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Hurricane Harvey’s impact on US growth is showing up in the economic data. There is some debate, however, whether Harvey explains all of the weak data reported on Friday. Here is the monthly change in industrial production. The direct damage is now in the range of $60 – $100bn but …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 18th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the breakdown of US exports by country. Emerging Markets: China’s real fixed investment growth is completely driven by the state. Equity Markets: A Credit Suisse survey says than many investors expect the stock market to outperform everything else in the second half of the year. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 15th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Is wage growth about to accelerate (see more detail here)? Credit: The Moody’s bond covenant index (which measures investor protections built into the bond documents) is drifting lower. Energy: Refinery inputs took a massive hit as a result of Harvey. And this is propane production by region. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with the jobs openings report which beat economists’ forecast (hitting an all-time high). Here is the number of unemployed Americans per job opening. Is stronger wage growth on the horizon? And this chart shows the Beveridge curve (openings vs. unemployment). Rates: Here is the path of real yields …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2017”
Greetings, The United States: Consumer inflation expectations three years out hit a record low. This trend will add to the argument for waiting with the Fed rate hikes until next year. However, US financial conditions continue to ease despite the quarterly rate hikes. Some at the Fed will focus on this trend to argue …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2017”
