Greetings, Rates: The global bond rout is picking up momentum. Most bond yields are still below 2019 levels but are rising quickly. The US: Japan: The euro 10yr swap rate moved into positive territory for the first time since April. Credit: Higher inflation tends to be helpful for leveraged companies (pushing up prices …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Jobless claims remain elevated with no signs of tapering. Eurozone: Euro-area consumer confidence remains soft, … … which may be a drag on retail sales. Energy: Natural gas prices in the Houston ship channel hit new highs due to disruptions. Equities: Short interest has declined throughout the US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 19th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The FOMC minutes show that the central bank remains dovish despite signs of stronger growth and higher inflation. The market now expects liftoff in 2023 … … as Treasury yields climb. United Kingdom: The rapid pace of vaccinations in the UK gave the pound a lift. China: The CSI 300 stock …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 18th, 2021”
Greetings, Eurozone: Brexit has forced a rerouting of trade routes between Ireland and the continent (see comment from the FT). China: Mortgage rates have been drifting lower, and the overall mortgage market expansion has been slowing Emerging Markets: Current account balances are in much better shape than they were during taper-tantrum in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 17th, 2021”
Greetings, Energy: Frigid weather in parts of the US has been straining the nation’s energy infrastructure. Electricity prices in Texas spiked amid natural gas shortages and windmill problems. Equities: S&P 500 earnings are already above the pre-pandemic high, and Goldman expects significant growth this year. Eurozone: The euro-area trade surplus hit a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 16th, 2021”
Greetings, United Kingdom: This chart shows the divergence between EU and UK in-store clothing retail activity. The public mostly approves of the government’s vaccine rollout. Europe: Here are European importers and exporters of electricity. Japan: The Nikkei breached 30k for the first time in decades. Commodities: Platinum is soaring. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The most liquid US ETFs (SPY, QQQ, and IWM) have been gapping up at the open more frequently than ever before. Credit: Foreign banks have been tapping the US commercial paper market. Unlike their US counterparts, foreign banks typically don’t have access to US dollar deposits. Given the massive spike in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The January CPI report was a bit weaker than the markets were expecting. • Headline CPI: Treasury yields pulled back. China: The renminbi keeps grinding higher (the offshore yuan shown below). Energy: Technicals point to downside risk for WTI crude. Equities: Goldman’s non-profitable tech index is approaching 250% year-over-year …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2021”
Greetings, China: Consumer inflation indicators are in negative territory. • Headline CPI: Some of the core CPI weakness was due to a decline in transportation costs, as Bejing asks everyone not to travel over the holidays. The spikes in this index are due to the Lunar New Year timing. With these trends likely …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Economists are concerned that the additional $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus will overheat the nation’s economy. China: Total debt levels continue to climb. Bitcoin: Tesla’s Bitcoin purchase sent the cryptocurrency to a new record. Will we see $50k shortly? Miami’s mayor wants to have Bitcoin on the city’s balance sheet. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 9th, 2021”
