Greetings, United States: Morgan Stanley expects a rapid increase in CapEx over the coming years. Europe: This chart shows the EC’s projections for the output gap. China: China continues to dominate global solar panel production. Emerging Markets: Chile elected a left-leaning assembly and asset prices tumbled. Energy: US retail gasoline …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 17th, 2021
Greetings, Europe: Here is the projected growth map. Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s stock market has been tumbling in recent days amid investor deleveraging (2nd chart). China: Domestic rating companies are starting to do their job, … … as local bond defaults soar. Commodities: Commodities have been reacting strongly to global growth …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 14th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with some updates on the labor market. Online search activity points to a return to the workplace. Jobless claims continue to trend lower. Eurozone: Yields continue to climb. Cryptocurrency: It’s been a rough week for cryptocurrencies. Energy: Capital Economics expects oil prices to peak this year …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 13th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The CPI report massively overshot market expectations. While these price gains are substantial, they are not that unusual from a historical perspective. We just haven’t seen such increases in recent years, especially in the core CPI. The probability of a rate hike next year rebounded, essentially offsetting last week’s lousy employment …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The job openings report provided further confirmation of the tightening labor market. Vacancies blew past market expectations. The Beveridge curve has turned up, suggesting that many unemployed workers are not ready to return. United Kingdom: GBP/USD has been sensitive to yield moves. Asia-Pacific: Will Australia lose its AAA rating …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 11th, 2021
Greetings, Equities: Tech stocks have widened their underperformance, with the Nasdaq 100 losing over 4% in the last few days. Credit: Banks have started easing lending standards for business credit this year. Rates: Market-based inflation expectations keep grinding higher. However, the long end of the inflation swap curve remains relatively well …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 10th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Markets sees the weak employment report keeping the Fed on hold for longer. Perhaps taper is off the table this year? The futures-based probability of a 2022 rate hike declined sharply. Short-term Treasury yields dipped, and the US dollar slumped. China: The renminbi rose sharply in response to the soft …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 7th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Let’s begin with the labor market. Initial jobless claims remain on a downward path. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits is also declining. United Kingdom: The updated April Markit Services PMI figure was even stronger than the earlier report, as Britain reopens. Emerging Markets: India’s COVID cases …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 6th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Price pressures in the service sector are expected to boost core consumer inflation (the core PCE is the Fed’s preferred metric). US inflation reports have been surprising to the upside. Eurozone: Evercore ISI forecasts a rebound in year-over-year real GDP growth of 4.2% in Q4. Cryptocurrencies: As the stock …
The Daily Shot Brief – May 5th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The jobs recovery has been lagging the economic rebound. A jump in Boomer retirements last year may exacerbate labor shortages in some sectors. Eurozone: Here is a look at the euro-area money markets. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin’s transaction speed is slowing while costs are rising (2 charts). Most G10 …