Greetings, United States: Trucking loads have rebounded sharply but appear to be moderating. School and daycare closings will create a substantial drag on the nation’s GDP growth. Eurozone: Spain’s second wave appears to be less deadly. China: Americans increasingly have an unfavorable view of China. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s demand for the …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 3rd, 2020
Greetings, United States: The Chicago PMI rebounded sharply last month, suggesting that Midwest manufacturing activity is back in growth mode. We should see substantial gains in the ISM manufacturing index today. The US velocity of money has collapsed. The rapidly rising money supply has been generating far less economic growth (less GDP per unit of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 31st, 2020
Greetings, United States: Uncertainty around growth in the second half of the year remains elevated. Without more stimulus, personal incomes will crater, and consumer spending will follow, according to Alpine Macro. And there is work to be done to get to an agreement on the stimulus package. Commodities: Assets under management at the largest gold …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 30th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The Federal Reserve left policy unchanged as it monitors the virus spread. It will be some time before the labor market recovery warrants a rate hike. In fact, the market continues to price in the possibility of negative rates next year. The US dollar declined further in response to the Fed’s cautious …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 29th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Consumer confidence weakened in July, with the Conference Board’s index surprising to the downside. Expectations deteriorated in Texas and Florida. And the Conference Board’s expectations indicator at the national level may decline further. Europe: The ECB is pressuring banks to keep dividend payouts on hold for now. Energy: 2020 is …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 28th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Regional Fed surveys suggest that the July ISM report will show an acceleration in factory activity at the national level. China: Industrial capacity utilization rebounded sharply in the second quarter For now, economic activity remains below last year’s levels. Energy: The Brent curve is moving back into contango. Equities: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 27th, 2020
Greetings, Commodities: Spot gold broke through the 2011 high this morning. Here are some of the drivers of the latest rally. First, real rates are moving deeper into negative territory, supporting gold. The recent dollar weakness is another factor behind the rally. Energy: The US rig count rose last week for the first time …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 24th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Unemployment applications remain above 2 million per week. Here is the total number of Americans receiving jobless benefits (about 20% of the labor force). Eurozone: The ECB’s asset purchases have been slowing. China: The stock market rally has faded. China’s currency rebound has stalled as well. Rates: Inflation expectations …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 23rd, 2020
Greetings, United States: The Household Pulse Survey (from the Census Bureau) suggests that the labor market rebound peaked in mid-June and has been reversing since. Eurozone: Euro-area bond funds have been experiencing capital outflows since 2014. Energy: The rebound in US gasoline demand is fading. Equities: The tech mega-cap outperformance has been …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 22nd, 2020
Greetings, Equities: Half the stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the index by over 10%. Only 22% of the members are outperforming by more than 10%. Such divergence is highly unusual. Alternatives: SPACs have been popular in recent years, with demand ratcheting up in 2020. Here are the annualized returns for alternative investments …
