Greetings, United States: The NY Fed’s regional manufacturing index showed an impressive improvement in factory activity. It’s worth noting that New York and New Jersey were late to reopen, and some of the rebound is due to pent-up demand. The expectations index is off the highs but remains elevated. United Kingdom: This year’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The headline CPI increased, driven by the recovery in fuel costs and soaring food prices. Market-based inflation expectations have nearly recovered from the pandemic-led decline. China: The nation’s trade surplus is near multi-year highs on a year-to-date basis. Equities: Here is a summary of S&P 500 dividend cuts, suspensions, …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The 2020 federal deficit is rapidly approaching $3 trillion after the biggest monthly increase on record in June (see story). Europe: Here is the IMF’s latest GDP projection for the EU. China: Foreign investors are increasingly buying Chinese government debt for safety and yield. Equities: Analysts’ earnings estimates …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2020
Greetings, Equities: Tech mega-caps increasingly dominate the US benchmark. Rates: Speculative investors are now net long the 10yr note futures. Energy: Last month’s Dallas Fed Energy survey showed that nearly 75% of energy and production firms are expected to restore their curtailed output over the next three months. Stockpiles of gasoline and …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 10th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Another 1.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. While the headline initial claims figure has been gradually moderating, the situation is more troubling when the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program is taken into account. Eurozone: The number of European “zombie” companies is on the rise. China: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2020
Greetings, Global Developments: Despite the recent bounce, inflation swap markets still expect the CPI to remain subdued for years to come. United States: Credit card borrowing declined sharply this year. Households cut back spending while the government offered generous support. In the first quarter, Northeast states saw a sharper GDP contraction than the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 8th, 2020
Greetings, United States: Spending by low-income consumers is back to pre-crisis levels. Eurozone: Will the recent spike in liquidity boost European shares? The European Commission is now estimating the 2020 GDP contraction at 8.7%. China: Here is Goldman’s forecast for China’s stock market. Credit: Many properties backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 7th, 2020
Greetings, United States: The ISM non-manufacturing report showed business activity returning to growth last month (PMI > 50). The headline index topped economists’ forecasts. Forecasters have been surprised by the speed of the US economic rebound. Here is the Citi Economic Surprise Index (includes the ISM non-manufacturing report). However, the recovery has been losing …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2020
Greetings, China: The government-backed China Securities Journal emphasized on Monday the need for a “healthy” bull market to support the recovery. Beijing’s proxies have been hitting social media in droves, echoing the phrase “bull market.” The stock market is up 10% over the past week. According to Markit, the nation’s service-sector activity is expanding …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 2nd, 2020
Greetings, Administrative Update As a reminder, the Daily Shot will not be published on Friday, July 3rd. United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI, a closely watched indicator of US factory activity, topped economists’ forecasts. The headline index saw the biggest monthly increase in June since 1980 as manufacturing returns to growth (PMI > 50). Pandemic-related …
