Greetings, United States: While the debt limit crisis has been averted in the short term, the US Treasury is massively underfunded. United Kingdom: Gilt yields are surging (2 charts). The probability of three BoE rate hikes by next June is approaching 80%. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s spot volume increased over the past few days, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 11th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The bulk of the recent job openings have been in small and medium-sized businesses. Canada: Short-term bond yields are surging as more rate hikes get priced in. Emerging Markets: Here is a summary of India’s energy crisis. Cryptocurrency: How different are crypto investors from the broader population? …
Greetings, United States: The debt ceiling “can” has been kicked down the road (into December). Yields on shorter-term T-bills declined, while December bills sold off. Stocks rebounded. United Kingdom: The market expects two BoE rate hikes by next May, … … as inflation expectations spike (driven by an unprecedented surge in energy prices). …
Greetings, Energy: European energy prices have gone vertical. These unprecedented market moves will scar European and global economies by squeezing corporate margins and ultimately cutting into households’ disposable incomes and sentiment. Rates: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed’s RRP (reverse repo) program usage to peak in size when the debt ceiling is resolved (when …
Greetings, United States: Factory orders continued to climb in August. Eurozone: Will euro-area PMI catch up to the US ISM, … … or will China derail Eurozone’s manufacturing expansion? Emerging Markets: India’s coal inventories have collapsed. Energy: Brent climbed above $81/bbl after bullish news from OPEC+. Credit: A large …
Greetings, United States: The Treasury market continues to show investors’ unease with the debt ceiling situation (potential risk of default). The X-Date is expected to hit later this month. Here is the T-bill yield curve. Some are calling for the US Treasury to issue a trillion-dollar coin and deposit it at the Fed, which …
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, the next Daily Shot will be published on Monday, October 4th. United States: US exports of goods hit another record high in August. United Kingdom: Natural gas prices jumped another 10% on Wednesday. This trend will leave a mark on the economy. The UK relies heavily …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 30th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The risk of a technical default remains priced into the Treasury curve, which is inverted at the short end. Eurozone: Capital Economics expects surging natural gas prices to bring the headline CPI to 4% this year. China: Financing for developers has been tightening (2 charts). Emerging Markets: Which …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Energy: US frac spread count picked up momentum as prices surge. Equities: Rate-sensitive stocks such as utilities and REITs sold off. Commodities: Commodity ETFs are seeing outflows after months of massive inflows. Cryptocurrency: Some traders have piled into DeFi tokens in the wake of China’s crypto ban. By the way, Uniswap …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 28th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Goldman’s “reopening” index massively outperformed “stay at home” stocks last week. Airlines got a boost from easing travel rules. Credit: The US corporate debt-to-equity ratio is extraordinarily low (as the stock market continues to rally).. Rates: TIPS yields (implied real rates) have climbed in recent days (which tends to be …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2021”
