Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United States: Economists and the market anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year.

Credit: Short bets on HY ETFs have been rising.

Equities: The average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500 has been declining, dropping from nearly 35 years in the late 1960s to just over 18 years projected for the 2020s. This trend underscores the accelerating pace of disruption and turnover among market leaders.

Japan: The BoJ’s lending program has steadily expanded, reaching ¥80 trillion, but is now set to wind down as part of its broader balance sheet reduction. This marks a significant step toward policy normalization after years of aggressive monetary easing.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank delivered another 100 bps rate hike.

Food for Thought: DeepSeek app downloads:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer sentiment indicator declined again this month.

The Eurozone: Will German bankruptcies peak as borrowing costs turn lower?

Cryptocurrency: Here is a timeline of crypto developments over the past year and what lies ahead.

Commodities: Will copper catch up to gold’s rally?

Equities: Investors re-entered tech on Tuesday after Monday’s AI-fueled rout.

Food for Thought: Population changes by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Although the selloff was sharp, it remained narrowly focused. The losses were concentrated in the tech sector, especially semiconductors.

Stock-bond correlations were negative on Monday, with bonds acting as a hedge again.

China: Tech stocks are outperforming.

Alternatives: Here is a look at startup founding team ownership shares across VC funding rounds.

Emerging Markets: Brazil consumer confidence deteriorated this month.

The United Kingdom: Food prices jumped this month.

Food for Thought: AI model performance scores:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: According to S&P Global, US factory activity resumed growth this month.

The United Kingdom: The UK manufacturing contraction eased somewhat this month.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s factories finished the year on a strong note, with the December industrial production topping expectations.

China: Non-manufacturing growth is stalling.

Equities: US futures are tanking this morning.

Food for Thought: UnitedHealth Group FY24 income statement breakdown:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Regional Fed surveys collectively suggest a rebound in CapEx at the national level.

The United Kingdom: The quarterly CBI outlook index has been tumbling.

Asia-Pacific: Australian factory activity has stabilized, but service-sector growth is stalling.

China: The renminbi is rebounding vs. the dollar.

Equities: Share buyback activity has been strong.

Food for Thought: Wealth distribution of America’s top 20 billionaires:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Stock investors anticipate a significantly higher job openings rate in the coming months.

Equities: US equity performance closely aligns with historical patterns observed during non-recessionary Fed rate-cutting cycles.

Hedge funds’ gross leverage has risen to multi-year highs, while net leverage increases have stalled.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s trade deficit has nearly vanished for the first time since 2021.

Emerging Markets: South Africa’s stocks have been outperforming EM peers.

Commodities: Coffee futures continue to surge.

Food for Thought: Minimum wage increases in 2025:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Fewer service firms are boosting wages.

The United Kingdom: Gilt issuance has been climbing.

Europe: This map shows six different socioeconomic clusters across European regions.

China: Corporate profits in China have fallen for three consecutive years, with 2024’s year-to-date decline notably sharp. Meanwhile, 25% of Chinese firms with revenue exceeding Rmb 20mn reported losses, reflecting a rising proportion of loss-making companies amid growing overall totals.

Equities: Related to the above, the average S&P 500 stock (equal-weight index) and midcaps have outperformed the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: The US insurance industry’s market value totals $1.7 trillion.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields are declining amid a rebound in global bond markets.

The Eurozone: Fund managers have been rotating into Eurozone stocks this month.

Equities: Typically, US stocks face challenges after a presidential inauguration.

The strength of the US dollar is projected to reduce S&P 500 EPS growth by about 1.5% in Q1 2025, posing challenges for multinationals.

China: The renminbi jumped this week after Trump discussed trade with Xi Jinping.

Global Developments: Here is a look at currency sensitivity to yield differentials.

Food for Thought: US goods trade with key partners:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Housing starts strengthened last month as multifamily construction rebounded.

The gap between total housing completions and building permits has been narrowing, signaling a positive trend for the housing market.

Equities:  The GS positioning index shifted to neutral.

Global Developments: Rate differentials point to downside risks for the dollar.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin hit a record high, nearing $110k.

Commodities: Speculative accounts continue to boost their bets on US cattle futures.

Food for Thought: The impact of NYC Congestion Pricing:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the Q4 GDP growth got a boost from the robust retail sales report.

The United Kingdom: Services output edged higher.

China: Industrial production growth topped forecasts.

Cryptocurrency: XRP has been surging.

Equities: US market breadth is starting to improve again.

Food for Thought: Bird migration pathways:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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