Greetings, United States: After the economic releases, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sharply downgraded the Q1 growth projections. Europe: Here is the US-Germany 10yr bond spread. The widening spread is driven in part by the divergence in economic growth expectations – primarily due to the gap in fiscal stimulus between the US …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 16th, 2021
Greetings, United Kingdom: The market is now pricing in a rate hike within a couple of years. Port activity has rebounded. Eurozone: EUR 10-year rates have followed the initial USD move until the ECB kicked off verbal “intervention” last month. Since then, the 10-year real rates have declined. China: Here is …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 15th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Consumer sentiment bounced this month amid soaring stock market, vaccine progress, and falling COVID cases. The improvement topped economists’ forecasts. But consumers seem to be concerned about their financial situation in a year (presumably when government support ends). Eurozone: How much will the ECB accelerate its securities purchases? Cryptocurrency: …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 12th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: The ECB has had enough of rising bond yields as it announced a faster pace of QE. The Governing Council: – First, the Governing Council will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 11th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Government stimulus is expected to generate the fastest annual growth in nearly four decades. Emerging Markets: EM currencies bounced on improved risk appetite. Cryptocurrency: This chart shows corporate treasury Bitcoin balances and average buy-in prices. The corporate Bitcoin buying trend has spread from the US to Hong Kong and Scandinavia. …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 10th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Businesses are increasingly facing labor shortages. Unemployment benefits have been much higher than normal. Combined with the one-off government payments, it’s been less attractive for many workers to get back into the labor force. Childcare challenges exacerbate the situation. The index of “job openings hard to fill” hit a record high. …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 9th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The inventory-to-sales ratio tumbled in recent months amid supplier bottlenecks and rising demand. For example, the inventory-to-sales ratio for lumber and other construction materials is now the lowest in over a decade which caused the recent spike in lumber prices. Eurozone: Will we see a pickup in PEPP (ECB’s …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 8th, 2021
Greetings, United States: US consumers continue to cut back on their credit card balances. Revolving credit is down almost 12% from the same time last year – a record drop. Eurozone: Market-based inflation expectations for the US and euro-area have diverged in recent months. Energy: The attack on Saudi oil facilities sent …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 5th, 2021
Greetings, Rates: Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday were dovish as usual. However, traders wanted to hear about how the Fed may address rising bond yields. In particular, there has been talk about the central bank shifting its bond purchases to longer maturities. The market didn’t get its wish, sending bond yields higher. The market …
The Daily Shot Brief – March 4th, 2021
Greetings, The United States: Here is the ISM price index vs. the core PCE inflation. The 5-year breakeven rate (market-based inflation expectations) hit the highest level in over a decade. United Kingdom: The UK GDP continues to lag peers. Commodities: US steel prices keep climbing. Equities: We have some equity factor …