Greetings, The United States: In the housing market, consumers now expect price declines over the next 12 months and slower growth over the next 5 years. The Eurozone: Fund managers are very bearish on Eurozone equities. Emerging Markets: The Pakistani rupee continues to tumble despite bailout support, amid increased political uncertainty. Cryptocurrency: Crypto investment …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 18th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The drop in longer-dated inflation expectations got the markets’ attention. The concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored have eased. The combination of the above result and some comments from Federal Reserve officials reset the expectations for the July rate hike back near 75 bps. Stocks jumped. The Eurozone: The …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Mortgage applications dipped below 2015 levels, down about 18% from a year ago. The Eurozone: The euro briefly dipped below parity but rebounded. Italian politics are spooking debt markets again. China: The economy contracted more than expected last quarter. On the bright side, the rebound in retail sales …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To start off, the June CPI report delivered another shocker, with price gains exceeding most forecasts. Here is the attribution chart for the year-over-year figures. The terminal rate climbed back above 3.5% as the market priced in a significant probability of a 100 bps Fed rate hike this month. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Inflation is increasingly demand-driven, according to Deutsche Bank. Since demand can be subdued with a tighter monetary policy, this trend should encourage the Fed to keep raising rates. Emerging Markets: The Chilean peso is crashing with copper. The Colombian peso is under pressure as well, hurt by the political situation …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, the yield curve inversion hit the worst level since 2006. Looking at the labor market, the NY Fed’s national survey signals increasing concerns about employment, especially among Americans with a college degree. The Eurozone: Chinese demand for Eurozone goods has waned at the same time Eurozone import …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 11th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The June payrolls report surprised to the upside, nearing full recovery. This jobs report sealed a 75 bps Fed rate hike this month. Japan: The yen hit a 24-year low vs. USD. The ruling coalition’s election gains suggest that the accommodative monetary policy is here to stay. China: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 8th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, layoffs have picked up, but most workers are finding jobs quickly as the job market remains tight. The United Kingdom: The pound strengthened substantially vs. the euro after the news of Boris Johnson’s resignation. The Eurozone: HSBC expects inflation in France to ease as the government prevents …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 7th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, Treasury yields jumped following the hawkish FOMC minutes. The yield curve moved deeper into inversion. Market-based inflation expectations keep drifting lower with oil. The United Kingdom: The misery index is nearing the post-2008 peak. China: Developer fundraising in bond markets is starting to pick up. Emerging …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The trade-weighted US dollar index hit the highest level in nearly two decades. Japan: Japan is now entangled in natural gas supply risk. The public is more upbeat about nuclear energy. Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodities Index corrected last month, although it has rarely produced such a positive return during the …
