The United States: Market expectations for the Fed’s policy rate trajectory have moved up substantially since the last projections were published in December. Will the Fed’s new dot plot shift higher?
Underlying inflation measures remain sticky, which could delay rate cuts.
The Eurozone: Here are the consensus estimates for GDP and inflation over time in the Eurozone and the US.
China: Industrial output surprised to the upside.
Emerging Markets: India’s exports jumped last month.
Equities: Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator.
Food for Thought: Chip design and fabrication costs:
The United States: Even with the rise in WARN notices, initial jobless claims remained close to multi-year lows last week, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.
Japan: Japanese investors have been dumping foreign stocks.
Cryptocurrency: Crypto fund inflows hit a record high.
Commodities: Iron ore futures continue to sink.
Energy: WTI crude climbed above $80/bbl.
Equities: Equity fund inflows have been exceptionally strong.
The United States: The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% following Chair Powell’s hinting that the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in the deceleration of inflation trends.
China: Rail travel picked up relative to prior years during the recent holiday season.
Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes in bitcoin and meme tokens surged last week. (2 charts)
Energy: US LNG export capacity is expected to nearly double over the next few years.
Equities: The S&P 500 12-month forward P/E ratio is back above 21x.
Rates: Tighter liquidity will boost short-term rate volatility
Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s assets bounced after the news of a capital injection.
Rates: The copper-to-gold ratio suggests that Treasury yields should be lower.
Equities: While share buyback activity remains well below the levels seen last year when excluding Chevron’s massive buyback from the previous year’s data, the current figures align more closely with last year’s trend.
Global Developments: The dollar has been selling off, with the trade-weighted index back at its 50-day moving average.
The United States: Here is the Beveridge curve, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.
The Eurozone: Germany’s trade surplus surged to new highs as exports jumped.
China: So far, raw material prices have not confirmed the rebound in Chinese equities.
Food for Thought: Projected job growth for top 10 occupations: